(Kitco News) - The ongoing energy crisis, persistent inflation and surging bond yields continue to create significant near-term headwinds for gold and silver, but those challenges have done little to shake the precious metals industry’s long-term bullish conviction.
If anything, sentiment at the 2026 London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Global Precious Metals Conference suggested that the fundamental case for gold is broadening as central banks diversify their reserves, geopolitical fragmentation reshapes the global monetary system and rising sovereign debt raises questions about the traditional safe-haven role of government bonds.
According to the conference’s annual price survey, delegates see gold prices trading around $5,013.30 an ounce by this time next year, representing a roughly 20% gain from current levels. Spot gold last traded at $4,163.30 an ounce, up 0.57% on the day.
The bullish outlook comes after last year’s forecast significantly missed the mark. At its 2025 conference, delegates expected gold prices to be around $4,980.30 an ounce.
Gold has struggled through 2026 as the U.S.-Iran war has driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation and forcing central banks to maintain tightening biases. Rising interest rate expectations have helped to pushed long-dated bond yields to their highest levels in roughly 20 years.
However, a recurring theme throughout the two-day conference was that the forces traditionally considered negative for gold are becoming increasingly complicated.
Higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, but speakers noted that rising sovereign debt and deteriorating fiscal positions are also pushing term premia higher and raising questions about the long-term reliability of government debt.
“I think, in a way, gold is sending us a message that maybe the global debt is reaching an inflection point where the supply of paper may probably overwhelm the demand,” said Vikram Dhawan, Head of Commodities and Fund Manager at Nippon India Mutual Fund during a panel discussion.
Central bank demand was another major theme, with reserve managers increasingly viewing gold as more than simply an inflation or geopolitical hedge.
Highlighted during the conference, UBS Asset Management’s latest Reserve Management Survey, 65% of respondents identified diversification as the primary reason for holding gold. Gold was also among the leading assets central banks expect to add to their reserves during the next 12 months.
Several central bankers highlighted gold’s unique status as an asset that is no one else’s liability. Speakers noted that geopolitical fragmentation, sanctions and concerns about sovereign credit risk have increased the appeal of holding an asset without counterparty or default risk.
At the same time, analysts said persistent fiscal deficits and rising government debt continue to support the “debasement trade,” as investors look to protect their purchasing power against the long-term erosion of fiat currencies.
Delegates were even more bullish on silver, forecasting prices to rise to $94.70 an ounce during the next 12 months. The forecast represents a gain of more than 54% from current levels. Spot silver last traded at $61.23 an ounce, up 0.50% on the day.
Silver is already trading above the $59.10 forecast made at the 2025 conference despite suffering a significant correction from this year’s highs.
Although elevated prices are forcing industrial users to reduce silver consumption where possible, conference participants said structural demand remains healthy.
Photovoltaic manufacturers continue to thrift silver as costs rise, but speakers noted that the metal remains difficult to completely replace in solar technology. Meanwhile, continued growth in artificial intelligence infrastructure, electric vehicles and broader electrification is expected to create long-term demand for both silver and gold.
Physical investment demand has also remained resilient, with dealers reporting periods earlier this year when tight inventories and strong buying made it difficult to meet demand.
Ultimately, the message from the conference was that investors should expect continued volatility as precious metals compete with elevated interest rates and bond yields. However, delegates see structural demand from central banks, sovereign debt concerns, geopolitical uncertainty and expanding industrial consumption continuing to support higher prices over the longer term.
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