My September 3 read separates the expected retrace from what comes next: BTC and ETH are approaching their Fast lines, lower-cap breadth is improving, OTHERS has a two-way close, USDJPY needs confirmation, oil is at a conditional short area, and many ALTs have bounce setups without a blanket bullish confirmation.
BTC approaches its support-fan decision
Bitcoin TetherUS daily Binance chart
I expect BTC to close below the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement level and bounce from the Fast line just under $75k. The 0.618 Fib is the more significant support after that. I am not treating the expected dip as the final answer, because what happens after the retrace matters more.
TOTALE50 shows stronger lower-cap breadth
TOTALE50 daily CRYPTOCAP chart
I see TOTALE50 looking strong, with OBV moving up hard and its moving average now turning up into a bullish trend. I keep that separate from TOTALE100, which remains in bullish consolidation inside its Cloud, and from OTHERS.D, where dominance is market share, not spot price.
OTHERS has a two-way closing trigger
OTHERS daily CRYPTOCAP market-cap chart
I see Wednesday's drop in TBO Resistance as a double-edged sword. If OTHERS market cap closes above that level, I have a strong uptrend. If it cannot, I expect OTHERS to drop into its Cloud. This is OTHERS market cap excluding the top 10, not OTHERS.D dominance.
USDJPY needs a close below 158.203
USDJPY daily OANDA chart
I see USDJPY below the Cloud, which is constructive for the bearish thesis, but the pair has still made higher lows since August 3. I need a close below Wednesday's low at 158.203 before I say the pain train has started.
Oil near $91 is a conditional short setup
Light crude oil futures daily NYMEX chart
I still like the short setup as oil approaches $91: daily RSI is overbought and price is near resistance. I also know US-Iran developments can flip the market quickly, so I am treating this as a setup rather than a guaranteed reversal.
DOGE represents the broader ALT bounce setup
Dogecoin TetherUS daily Binance chart
I see a short-term bounce in play for many ALTs even though many remain in bearish consolidation inside their Clouds. Lower highs since August 22 have coiled price, and a quick pop could ignite short-squeeze liquidations. DOGE is one example. I am not extending that view to charts such as DOG that already pumped and had their chance.
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