CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 3:50 p.m. EDT 4 September 2026 $4,437.60 (Basis the October 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $4,320 - $4,670
Initial Timeframe: 7 September 2026 to 16 September 2026
Stop Loss: NA
Gold and other precious metals prices have been extremely volatile lately. CPM expects them to continue to be so over the next two weeks, as financial market participants’ opinions about U.S. interest rates jostle back and forth.
In the new week markets will fret over the August PPI and CPI to be released during that week, thinking that if there are signs of softening inflation rates maybe the Fed will not increase interest rates on 16 September, but if inflation rates look to stay elevated the Fed will raise rates.
The following week markets will bounce around in advance of the Fed’s 16 September press conference.
At present the market is roughly split in half that the Fed might raise rates 25 bips on 16 September or leave rates unchanged. Markets are pondering this. A 25 bip increase will do nothing to quell inflation, but it would indicate some backbone on the part of the new Fed Chairman. This could knock precious metals prices lower at least on a short-term basis.
CPM Group’s medium-term expectation remains bullish for gold. There continues to be a number of political and economic reasons for these metals’ prices to rise. Prices have the potential to decline further on a short-term basis, however, based on the possibility of higher interest rates and market expectations of higher interest rates over the next two weeks, between now and the FOMC meeting 15 and 16 September.
In this environment CPM would advise standing aside in these Trade Recommendations, given that we use stop-loss positions to protect capital and the expected gold price volatility makes it very risky to place a long or short trade on. Without a stop loss position our ultra short term inclination would be to expect prices to dip lower at times over the next two weeks.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
