My September 22, 2026 read separates bullish continuation from conditional pullback risk, without turning profit-taking into an all-out exit.
Extreme greed meets a powerful Bitcoin breakout
Bitcoin / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
The Fear & Greed index is at its highest reading since July 2025, a major profit-taking warning in my view, not proof the market cannot rise further. BTC confirmed a daily TBO Breakout on a 6% gain. It is overbought and extended from its Fast line, but Monday’s RSI exceeded the previous high, a strong bullish continuation sign. I am personally taking no more than another 10% from my longs. I expect a sudden pullback, but I am not saying everything dumps today. The Slow line around $70,491 is my worst-case BTC scenario, roughly -17%; separately, I think a panic-sell event around -19% could happen. These are scenarios, not guaranteed targets. Each day BTC stays strong bullish above its Cloud helps curl the Slow line upward, supporting the broader bullish trend and my buy-the-dip stance.
Ethereum reaches a short-term rejection zone
Ethereum / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
ETH printed its third daily TBO Breakout on Monday and barely reached the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension at 2,818. I regard that extension as a rejection zone, weaker because it is short term but still valid. ETH/BTC separately printed a TBT Bearish Divergence, a small warning for ALTs that BTC is winning in the short term. The ratio signal is not an ETH/USD bearish-divergence claim.
Stablecoin dominance reaches weekly support
USDT.D+USDC.D · 1W · CRYPTOCAP
Combined stablecoin dominance went oversold on Monday and could be printing a bullish RSI Reset today. More importantly, it reached historical weekly TBO Support. I see this as a good location for a reversal toward the weekly Fast line around 10.5%, which would reflect a significant BTC and ETH pullback. The RSI Reset and reversal are not confirmed. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
ALT strength faces distinct resistance tests
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, % · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
OTHERS.D pulled back more than 2% on Monday but remains strong bullish. A close above historical TBO Resistance at 8.36% would be very strong bullish. As it approaches overhead resistance just over 9%, I am watching for a local ALT top and sticking to my profit-taking plan. Separately, OTHERS market cap pierced long-term overhead resistance this week; a close above 240 B is still the condition for the next bullish development. That is not the same chart or unit as OTHERS.D.
The dollar remains strong while I watch for a drop
U.S. Dollar Index · 1D · TVC
DXY remains strong bullish above its Cloud, with RSI overbought for four confirmed days. I still expect a drop rather than bullish continuation, but that expectation is not a completed reversal. EURUSD confirmed a TBO Open Short on Monday; my expectation that it should bounce depends on the anticipated DXY pullback, with higher RSI lows supporting that view.
VIX support is a conditional market-top watch
Volatility S&P 500 Index · 1D · TVC
VIX moved a bit lower on Monday. A move to TBO Support at 13.35 would likely be a short-term market-top signal. It might coincide with the S&P reaching 8k, not a guaranteed outcome or a claim either target has already been reached. The current strength in equities does not remove the need to prepare for pullbacks.
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