Bitcoin's Monday dip brought no new reversal warning, while second Close Longs are mounting across altcoins. I am still waiting on BTC and separating developing resets, dominance conditions and bounce targets from completed events.
Bitcoin has no new reversal warning, but I am waiting
BTC dropped more than 2% on Monday without printing a TBT Bearish Divergence or TBO Close Long. I view this as a minor dip, not the same warning state appearing on many altcoins. I am still biding my time until a sharp drop down to the TBO Slow line. Holding its ground here does not mean price never fell or that I have already bought this dip.
Ethereum relative strength has a reset to watch
ETH/BTC has six confirmed oversold RSI days; a bullish RSI reset would be a big deal for altcoins and likely a leading indicator, but it is not yet confirmed. Separately, ETH spot fell about 3.5% on Monday, but RSI made a higher low without going oversold. Its daily Slow line looks stronger than BTC's even though price sits deeper in the Cloud. ETH.D also has six confirmed oversold days and is likely to print a bullish RSI reset today. That is a likely developing event, not a completed reset.
Bitcoin dominance nears its previous pivot
BTC.D reached 60.36% so far today, near September's 60.41% pivot high, with daily RSI nearly parabolic. Once its spaghetti support breaks, I expect OTHERS.D to absorb the dominance from BTC. That support break has not been declared complete. Dominance is just barely starting to flow back into ETH.D; if ETH.D starts pumping, I expect dominance to flow into OTHERS.D too. Stablecoin dominance closed green inside the Cloud in bullish consolidation on Monday, but its Slow line still points down and RSI made a lower high. I see that combination favorably. These percentages measure market share, not spot-price targets.
Altcoin market-share optimism coexists with warnings
OTHERS.D remains in bearish consolidation, but its Slow line keeps pointing up and Monday's dip produced no additional TBT Bearish Divergence or TBO Close Long. I am optimistically waiting for a push above TBO Resistance at 8.75% before altcoins go higher; that is a future move, not an achieved breakout. TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D both printed bearish divergences, the latter its second, which I still view as a dip-buy moment. Separately, dollar market-cap charts TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 also printed bearish divergences, while TOTALES and OTHERS printed Close Long warnings. OTHERS is still macro bullish. TOTALES warnings dampen my continuation excitement, but such warnings also occurred during sustained historical uptrends; they are not proof of a macro reversal. My stance remains to buy the dip and patiently wait to sell the rip.
The dollar breakout is a stronger macro warning
DXY printed its third TBO Breakout on Monday and reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 102.603. RSI has stayed overbought for 19 confirmed bars, or 27 days. I see that as a very strong warning for traditional markets, even though a downward pivot is due. S&P futures and NDX remain strong bullish above their Clouds; DJI is bouncing above its Fast line inside the Cloud. Those different states should not be flattened into one broad reversal call.
Second Close Longs change how I handle a bounce
Many altcoins printed bearish divergences or TBO Close Longs, and I give Close Longs more weight. A second daily Close Long deserves even more attention: BNB, SOL, ZEC and LINK are examples. The expected behavior is a bounce to the Fast line; once that happens, look to exit or reduce existing position sizes further to free capital for a potential deeper dip buy at the Slow line or TBO Support. This is not a claim that those bounces have completed. NEAR's bearish-divergence cluster did not close inside the Cloud and its Slow line remains very strong bullish, so I still view it as okay. ONDO printed neither warning and has a macro-bullish Slow line, giving it a stronger dip-buy outlook. DRV has a Springboard Bounce setup at 0.416 with Resistance at 0.539; CARDS is conditional on retracing to 0.2545, with Resistance at 0.3383. SUPER is working on a bounce after Monday's 0.20 Fast-line retrace, with Resistance at 0.2391. ORCA has a setup at 2.0794 with Resistance at 3.0798, which I regard as a bit high. These are my chart setups and destinations, not fills, achieved returns or complete risk plans. WAL's second bearish divergence leaves it looking shaky.
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