In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the gold price outlook, silver’s $60 price test, election risks, investment demand, and why a delayed rally increases the possibility of a sharp short-term selloff.
Gold and silver prices continue to trade sideways as market sentiment pushes prices in opposing directions. Jeff explains why the longer these ranges persist, the greater the risk of a sharp downward move. CPM still expects higher prices beyond the next few weeks and would not be surprised to see a selloff first, followed quickly by investors buying the dip.
Some gold buyers are waiting for lower prices, viewing $4,000 as potentially acceptable for a longer-term purchase but hoping to buy closer to $3,800. Other investors have already been buying. Gold ETFs added approximately 3 million ounces in August as prices rose and another 2 million ounces in September as prices fell. Dealers are reporting stronger sales in September, and Comex investor longs are rising.
Silver remains near $60, with further downside pressure toward $54.50 if prices break below that area. Jeff also reviews platinum’s weakness toward $1,600 and palladium’s move below $1,200.
With the November 3 congressional elections three weeks away, Jeff expects political developments to remain important for precious metals. He explains why CPM sees potential economic and political problems under either election outcome, including contested results, legislative gridlock and the effects of budget cuts after the vote. The discussion also covers rising real interest rates, bond market stress, inflation pressures, and why longer-term interest rates and Treasury operations deserve attention alongside Federal Reserve policy.
