In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses gold’s break below $4,000, silver’s decline below $55, and the conditions that could bring investors back into precious metals. He explains why gold and silver are falling alongside other assets as concerns about economic growth, inflation, and political risks increase.
The active December gold futures contract fell as low as $3,989 before recovering to around $4,010 during the recording. Jeff reviews support near $3,800 and $3,500 and explains why investors who have been waiting for lower prices may continue waiting until the market shows signs of stabilizing. CPM expects selling pressure could persist into the U.S. congressional elections, while a difficult post-election environment could encourage renewed gold and silver buying. The timing and price of a bottom remain uncertain.
Silver fell to $53.00 earlier today. Jeff explains why CPM would not be surprised by a further decline toward $50 or even $48 before a recovery. He also reviews platinum’s break below $1,600 and palladium’s continued weakness.
The presentation also looks at India’s announced allowance for approximately 200 million ounces of silver imports over six months and why reduced selling by domestic silver holders has increased the role of imports.
The presentation concludes with a look at Russian central bank gold reserves and September sales. Reports cited sales of approximately 199,000 ounces, while CPM’s calculation indicates roughly 1.09 million ounces sold from the combined central bank and sovereign wealth fund holdings. Jeff explains how CPM calculates those estimates, why Russia has needed cash to finance government spending and the war in Ukraine, and how oil revenues and sanctions relief have affected its ability to buy or retain gold.
