CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 2:30 p.m. EDT 26 October 2026 $4,033.60 (Basis the December 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800 - $4,200
Initial Timeframe: 27 October 2026 to 10 November 2026
Stop Loss: NA
Gold prices remain in the downward trend that started in late August 2026. At present, prices are testing the important $4,000 support level that formed between late June and the middle of July 2026. After this floor largely held during July prices rose from present levels to reach an intraday high of $4,755 on 25 August.
This week brings a couple of events that could swing prices in either direction. Wednesday will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on interest rates followed by the Fed chair’s press conference, which will be heavily scrutinized by the market for any clues on the direction of monetary policy. Market consensus is 89.5% on the CME Fedwatch that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, a view supported by actual economic data and evidence.
Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) index, which the Fed relies on to gauge inflationary pressures in the economy, will be released on Thursday.
Either of these macroeconomic factors could move the gold market out of its recent range. On the downside, gold prices could potentially dip toward $3,800, but they may not fall that far and might only trade down to $3,950 or $3,900.
Any downside risk seems most likely to occur sometime between now and 3 November – the U.S. Midterm elections.
Prices could start rising after the election day because the elections will not be settled that day, there will be challenges. Trump and others may repeat the suggestion that they may not seat any new Democrat Senators or Representatives, there will be questions of potential political violence and the loyalty of the Defense Department and ICE troops, and more… all on top of all of the on-going political, economic, financial, and social problems around the world.
Prices may not decline at all in the event that PCE inflation data comes in weaker than expected. Given the potential for gold prices to swing either way.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
