The Fed held, Microsoft beat, Alphabet got crushed, and Bitcoin couldn’t hold above $81,000. Here’s why that’s not a good sign for the bulls.
If you’ve been following along, you know I post here every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. This one is a day late on purpose. Wednesday was packed with catalysts, and I trade off momentum, so I wasn’t going to write about where the market was heading before I saw which direction it actually picked.
Here’s what happened in the last 24 hours:
- The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% in a 10 to 2 vote. Both dissenters wanted a hike, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left the door open for one in December.
- Microsoft beat on earnings and rose about 4% after hours, with Azure growing 48%.
- Alphabet fell about 9% after hours. Google Cloud more than doubled, but heavy AI spending pushed free cash flow negative.
- Q3 GDP came in at 3.4%, beating expectations.
- Core PCE inflation came in at 3.1%, right in line with expectations.
Plenty of catalysts, and none of them were enough to push Bitcoin higher.
(Bitcoin chart showing the rejection above $81,000 after the Fed and earnings)
Bitcoin pushed above $81,000 after the Fed announcement and got rejected near $81,700. Then it dumped back under $80,000 when Alphabet’s earnings hit. As I write this, it’s sitting around $79,850, holding right below a level that used to be strong support.
That’s the part that matters. When a level holds as support for weeks, breaks, and then price can’t get back above it, that old support becomes resistance. Bitcoin had two shots at real momentum this week, the Fed and big tech earnings, and couldn’t use either one to reclaim it. This is not a good sign for the bulls.
Still ahead:
- Amazon reports after the bell today.
- More than $11 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit Friday.
- Apple reports Monday after the bell.
- Midterms are Tuesday.
How I’m trading it:
Go long strength, short weakness. Right now Bitcoin is showing weakness. Until it reclaims $80,000 and holds it, I’m not interested in longs. If it gets rejected under $80,000 again, the $79,100 low from last weekend is the next level I’m watching. If that breaks, the first dump probably isn’t the last dump… $75k is on the table.
If Bitcoin surprises and reclaims $81,000 with real momentum, I’ll change my mind. That’s the whole point of trading off momentum instead of opinions. “The trend is your friend,” and that’s why I use Swell Point to identify it precisely! GetSwellPoint.com
I’ll be posting what I’m seeing in real time in The Profit Circle, my private Discord community. If you want to learn how I read moves like these, that’s what I teach at CassiusCuvee.com. 🌊
