Bitcoin's Wednesday push stopped short of a daily close above the Cloud. Four-hour reversal signals are improving, but developing daily bearish signals can coexist with my macro bullish outlook. The distinction between a wick, a close and a confirmed signal matters today.
Bitcoin tags Fast but cannot close above the Cloud
BTC tagged the Fast line at Wednesday's high but failed to close above the Cloud. Another TBO Close Short printed on the separate four-hour chart, yet the daily chop remains frustrating. If BTC can close green on the day with decent volume, we should see a nice shift in OBV's white moving average and eventually a push above that average. I have not seen that daily close and volume condition fulfilled yet.
Ethereum holds new Support in bearish consolidation
ETH is holding above newly established TBO Support inside the Cloud but remains technically in bearish consolidation. It printed a new four-hour Close Short like BTC. The Slow line is still moving up; I am waiting for a close above the Fast line and the Cloud. Support holding and the four-hour signal are not a completed daily breakout.
Bitcoin dominance is strong bullish, but mature in time
BTC.D remains strong bullish above its Cloud, but it still has not closed above Resistance. A TBO Pro Maturing signal appeared Saturday. This move is 1.57x baseline in time above the Cloud and 0.84x baseline for the price move: distinct measurements, not two price returns. I still expect a drop into the Cloud, which should get OTHERS.D pushing much higher. Dominance is market share, not spot price. ETH.D remains very bearish toward its Slow line; SOL.D confirmed another bullish RSI reset but remains in bearish consolidation. Top 10 dominance wicked above its Cloud Wednesday; a red close today would print a bearish RSI reset. Stablecoin dominance wicked below its Cloud Wednesday; its four-hour Close Long completed, but it is bouncing again while BTC chops. Completing a Close Long is an indicator event, not me selling.
OTHERS dominance wicks above barriers without closing above them
OTHERS.D wicked above both the Cloud and overhead resistance Wednesday, but did not close above either. Three four-hour Close Shorts remain bullish reversal signals to be excited about, not proof of the missing daily breakout. Separately, daily TOTALES, TOTALE50 and OTHERS are working on Open Shorts on developing candles; there were still over 22 hours left on that candle when I wrote this. TOTALE100 already confirmed on Sunday. I remain macro bullish either way. OTHERS also had a second four-hour Close Short: its market-cap chart is distinct from OTHERS.D dominance. TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D are going oversold on RSI today, a separate observation from those market-cap signals. TOTAL3ESBTC tagged Fast Wednesday, fulfilling its October 12 Close Long, but remains strong bearish below the Cloud.
Dollar Resistance holds as S&P futures OBV turns up
DXY respected TBO Resistance again Wednesday. Now we should see it fall back into the Cloud, which should provide relief for US stocks and crypto, as well as the overextended Euro; the yen chart should fall toward 152. This is my outlook, not a completed dollar retreat or FX move. S&P futures' OBV white line, its 21 SMA, is starting to curl upward, a sign that buyers are shifting back into control. The Dow closed above the Cloud and printed an Open Long. NDX tagged Fast and completed its Close Long; completing that indicator signal does not mean I sold.
KAS divergence stands out while the late ALT watchlist stays mixed
KAS printed a TBT Bullish Divergence on Wednesday's daily chart with a bullishly ascending Slow line, a good bullish reversal signal. USELESS also printed daily bullish divergence Wednesday with a macro bullish Slow line. FARTCOIN printed a four-hour Close Short early this morning. APE is at TBO Support with oversold RSI, a great potential bounce zone rather than a confirmed bounce. Elsewhere, BNB closed above the Cloud Wednesday but is back inside; SOL has two four-hour Close Shorts while I watch support around 97; ZEC reached the Cloud top and is reversing; LINK has two four-hour Close Shorts. ADA is below new support: if it closes below, I expect a retest of lost support as resistance and then a drop lower. NEAR's daily Close Long is developing. XLM is approaching new Support; closing below would be strongly bearish. TAO's four-hour bullish setup still needs the bounce. AAVE is heading to mid-term support just over the 0.382 Fib level at 127.15, where I would like a bullish bounce. SKY is nearing short-term support around 0.064; I hope for a bounce to Fast at 0.0710, not a confirmed reversal. PEPE again failed to close above Resistance. INJ has pierced short-term support five times in five days; a close below would be a setback.
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