(Kitco Commentary) - In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses gold’s decline below $4,000, silver’s test of $50, and why CPM believes that we are close to the bottom. Further declines remain possible, but Jeff explains why the rebound could develop quickly as investors waiting for lower prices return to the market.
Gold was trading around $3,973 at the time of the recording, after falling to approximately $3,971. Jeff discusses the possibility of additional weakness toward $3,950 or $3,800 while emphasizing that CPM has greater conviction about the timing of a potential bottom than its exact price. Within four hours the gold price had dropped further, to $3,900. Once the market turns, CPM expects higher gold and silver prices through the end of 2026 and beyond.
Silver traded around $50.13 at the time of the recording, dropping to $49.08 within a couple of hours. CPM expected $50 to provide support, with additional support near $48. Jeff explains why CPM does not currently expect a decline to $40 and why a quick rebound may be more likely than an extended consolidation, given the number of investors waiting to buy.
The presentation also reviews platinum near $1,442, potential support around $1,300–$1,400, and palladium near $972. Jeff discusses supply-side support for platinum-group metals and CPM analyst Rohit Savant’s view that palladium appears oversold.
Jeff then discusses the advance estimate of third-quarter U.S. GDP, consumer spending, declining savings, and persistent PCE inflation. He explains why the initial GDP figures remain subject to revision and why spending that outpaces disposable income growth deserves attention.
