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Dollar outlook remains tilted to downside -analysts
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Rate futures price in rate cuts by end-2023
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Investors parsing hawkish ECB comments
By Harry Robertson and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss LONDON/NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The dollar was flat to slightly higher in choppy trading on Wednesday, as investors paused selling the greenback, a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not significantly change his U.S. interest rate outlook despite a strong U.S. jobs report last week. The greenback's outlook remained tilted to the downside as the Fed nears the end of its tightening cycle and the markets price in rate cuts by the end of the year, analysts said. In a question-and-answer session before the Economic Club of Washington on Tuesday, Powell said interest rates might need to move higher than expected if the U.S. economy remained strong, but reiterated he felt a process of "disinflation" is underway. The greenback slipped as Powell spoke. "The dollar weakened because Powell was not hawkish. There were a few nuggets in his speech that suggested that the jobs report has not materially shifted the Fed's outlook," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie in New York.
"Despite the data dependency of the outlook since last week, Powell did not even answer questions on whether or not he would have raised rates by more had he seen (the jobs report). Based on that demeanor, he would have not raised more and the outlook itself has not changed on one data point." In midmorning trading, the euro was slightly higher at $1.0733 after falling to $1.067 the previous session, its lowest since Jan. 9. It remained far above September's 20-year low of $0.953. Investors also digested hawkish comments from two German officials at the European Central Bank (ECB). "From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes," German central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the newspaper Boersen-Zeitung on Tuesday. His colleague Isabel Schnabel said it is not yet clear that the ECB rate hikes so far would bring inflation back to 2%. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was flat at to 103.33 on Wednesday, after slipping the previous session. Sterling rose 0.2% to $1.207, recovering from Tuesday's one-month trough of $1.196. The greenback had a short-lived rally following Friday's blockbuster jobs report, which showed that non-farm payrolls had surged by 517,000 jobs last month. That sent the U.S. dollar index to a one-month high of 103.96 on Tuesday, as investors raised their expectations of how much further the Fed would need to keep raising interest rates. Futures pricing on Wednesday showed that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by July, from a range of 4.5% to 4.75% currently. But the market has priced in Fed cuts as well with the implied fed funds rate at 4.8% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, according to pricing in derivatives markets , traders expect the ECB to hike rates to rise to around 3.5% in late summer, from 2.5% now. Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 131.315 yen Japanese real wages rose for the first time in nine months thanks to robust temporary bonuses, data on Tuesday showed. The New Zealand dollar dipped 0.1% to US$0.6319. The Aussie dollar slipped 0.1% as well to US$0.6953 after surging more than 1% on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday raised its cash rate by 25 basis points.
======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:52AM (1452 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change
Session
Dollar index 103.4300 103.3100 +0.13% -0.058% +103.4400 +102.9900
Euro/Dollar $1.0720 $1.0729 -0.08% +0.05% +$1.0761 +$1.0718
Dollar/Yen 131.4650 131.0900 +0.29% +0.28% +131.4750 +130.6000
Euro/Yen 140.93 140.62 +0.22% +0.45% +140.9500 +140.3000
Dollar/Swiss 0.9207 0.9223 -0.14% -0.39% +0.9223 +0.9179
Sterling/Dollar $1.2062 $1.2050 +0.11% -0.25% +$1.2109 +$1.2043
Dollar/Canadian 1.3423 1.3401 +0.16% -0.94% +1.3424 +1.3361
Aussie/Dollar $0.6940 $0.6960 -0.28% +1.81% +$0.6996 +$0.6940
Euro/Swiss 0.9869 0.9888 -0.19% -0.26% +0.9895 +0.9868
Euro/Sterling 0.8886 0.8902 -0.18% +0.47% +0.8911 +0.8875
NZ $0.6304 $0.6326 -0.34% -0.72% +$0.6348 +$0.6304
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway 10.2945 10.3255 -0.33% +4.87% +10.3205 +10.2320
Euro/Norway 11.0376 11.0619 -0.22% +5.18% +11.0788 +10.9966
Dollar/Sweden 10.5892 10.5689 +0.12% +1.74% +10.5922 +10.4972
Euro/Sweden 11.3523 11.3385 +0.12% +1.82% +11.3571 +11.2930
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World FX rates Euro vs. dollar ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Additional reporting by
Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Bradley Perrett, Christopher Cushing, Christina Fincher, Alexander Smith
and Jonathan Oatis)
