WHAT CAUSED EGYPT'S ECONOMIC WOES? Some of the causes date back decades, such as failed industrial development and export policies that created a persistent trade deficit.
An over-valued currency, weak property rights and institutions, and an overbearing state and military have deterred investment and competition. Subsidies - though now reduced - have long drained the budget. Foreign investment outside the oil and gas sector has been paltry, leaving receipts from remittances, Suez Canal transit fees and tourism to play a crucial role.
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi often blames turmoil
following a 2011 uprising and rapid population growth -- the
World Bank put annual population growth at 1.7% in 2021 -- for
the country's economic struggles. Since 2020, authorities have
pointed to external shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic and
the war in Ukraine.
But analysts also cite policy missteps including costly
defence of the Egyptian pound, a dependence on fickle foreign
portfolio investments, and a failure to carry out structural
reforms.
HOW BAD HAVE THINGS BECOME?
The economy has been growing steadily, but the impact of
that growth - forecast at 4% to 5% this year - is blunted by the
population surge. Many Egyptians say their standard of living
has been eroded.
Since March 2022, Egypt's pound has depreciated by nearly
50% against the dollar. An acute dollar shortage has suppressed
imports and caused a backlog of goods at ports, with a knock-on
effect on local industry.
Annual headline inflation surged to 25.8% in January, the highest level for five years, according to official data. Prices for many staple foods have risen much faster.
Official data classified about 30% of the population as poor before COVID-19 struck, and analysts say numbers have risen since then. As many as 60% of Egypt's 104 million citizens are estimated to be below, or close to the poverty line.
Unemployment has fallen to just over 7%, but labour market participation also dropped steadily in the decade to 2020. Parts of the public education system are in a state of collapse. Many graduates with the opportunity to do so seek work abroad.
WHAT SUPPORT CAN EGYPT DRAW ON? Both Western and Gulf states have broadly viewed Egypt under Sisi as a lynchpin of security in a volatile region.
As the fallout from the Ukraine war delivered Egypt its latest economic shock, Cairo received billions in deposits and investments from Gulf allies including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
But although Gulf states have also rolled over existing
deposits they have toughened conditions for injecting new money,
increasingly seeking investments that provide a return.
In March 2022, the government said it had begun talks for
its latest financial package from the IMF, eventually confirming
a $3 billion loan linked to reforms that include reducing the
footprint of the state and the military in the economy.
IS EGYPT'S DEBT SUSTAINABLE?
Egypt's debt burden has been climbing, though analysts
differ over how much of a risk this presents.
The government forecasts that by the end of the financial
year in June debt will stand at 93% of GDP, a measure that has
risen over the past few years and which it wants to reduce to
75% by 2026.
A heavy debt burden, rising interest rates and a weakening
currency have raised the cost of servicing debt. Interest
payments on debt are forecast to swallow more than 45% of all
revenue in the financial year that ends in June.
Substantial principle and interest payments on foreign debt contribute to a large external financing gap - the difference between supply of and demand for foreign currency financing. Egypt must repay the IMF alone $11.4 billion over the next three years. HOW HAS THE MONEY BEEN SPENT? Beyond outlays on regular costs, including public salaries and services, Egypt has spent heavily on infrastructure under Sisi.
This includes housing, a number of new cities, and rapid road building. The most prominent mega-project is a new capital in the desert east of Cairo, which one official said the state was trying to pay the $58 billion cost of through land sales and investments.
Egypt's arms imports also surged over the past decade, making it the third-largest importer globally, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Officials say they have upped spending on social programmes for the poor, including a cash handout scheme that covers five million families, though critics say the welfare is insufficient to protect living standards. (Writing by Aidan Lewis; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
