Brokerages remain constructive on gold’s long-term outlook despite recent price weakness, as rising bond yields, inflation concerns and a stronger dollar have pressured prices in the near term.
While several banks have trimmed near-term forecasts due to softer investor demand and elevated rate expectations, most analysts still expect prices to recover through 2026.
On Sunday, JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, citing softer near-term demand for the metal as investor client interest has “dried to a trickle.”
“This quietness shows through in stagnant activity and demand metrics. COMEX aggregate gold futures open interest and volume have remained depressed, net Managed Money futures open interest has stagnated at low levels and ETF flows have been light,” analysts at the bank said in a note dated Sunday.
The downgrade comes after ANZ lowered on Friday its year-end target price for gold to $5,600 as inflation expectations, higher yields and a stronger dollar are likely to pressure prices.
Despite the downgrade, JPMorgan maintained a bullish outlook, expecting prices to climb toward $6,000 an ounce by the end of 2026 as demand strengthens in the second half of the year.
“We retain our bullish medium-term outlook and forecast that after the immense energy and inflation uncertainty clears, gold demand from investors and central banks will again re-intensify over 2H26.”
Spot gold has fallen about 14% since the onset of the US-Iran war on February 28, as rising oil prices fuel concerns around inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
(By Pablo Sinha; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
