Gold set for worst quarterly loss in 13 years on hawkish Fed stance

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
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June 30 (Reuters) - Gold edged up on Tuesday but was on track for its sharpest quarterly decline ‌in 13 years, as inflation concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could hike interest rates.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,027.03 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1740 GMT) after hitting ​its lowest level since November earlier. Prices slid 11.2% in June so far.

U.S gold futures settled ​largely unchanged at $4,038.50 per ounce.

The precious metal was headed for its first quarterly decline ⁠since 2024 and its steepest since the second quarter of 2013, when the Gulf conflict ​stoked inflation concerns.

Although gold is typically seen as a hedge against inflation, higher rates tend to ​weigh on the non-yielding metal.

"The markets are a little uneasy about how stable the MOU is and there's pressure on gold because people are not seeing much light at the end of the tunnel," Marex analyst Edward Meir, ​said.

Top U.S. envoys who have arrived in Doha will not hold a high-level meeting with Iran, ​a Qatari official said, casting doubt on the progress of efforts to bring a lasting halt to the Iran ‌war.

The ⁠U.S. inflation readings remain stubbornly high and well above the Fed's 2% target. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for a prolonged period and may even consider further rate hikes," Meir said, noting that these expectations were weighing on gold prices.

Traders are pricing in ​about a 67% chance of ​an interest rate ⁠hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Investors are now eyeing the ADP employment data due on Wednesday and the U.S nonfarm payrolls ​data due on Thursday to further gauge the Fed's monetary policy stance.

Meanwhile, ​an OMFIF ⁠survey showed central banks are more likely to cut U.S. dollar exposure over the next decade due to heightened geopolitical concerns, while increasing gold holdings in the near term.

Among other metals, spot silver rose ⁠1.9% to $59.42 ​per ounce and was headed for its worst quarterly drop since the ​first quarter of 2020.

Platinum dropped 1.6% to $1,549.47 and palladium lost 0.6% to $1,206.17. Both metals were on track to log monthly and ​quarterly declines.

Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Louise Heavens and Diti Pujara

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