Sept 10 (Reuters) - The White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs as officials juggle concerns that higher prices for the red metal could raise manufacturing costs against the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The hesitation comes as the administration is increasingly focused on affordability ahead of November's midterm elections, with President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers facing pressure to demonstrate that their economic policies are lowering — rather than raising — costs for American consumers and businesses.
Copper prices have surged to record highs amid expectations that Trump would impose tariffs on refined copper products such as cathode, as well as copper concentrate produced at mine sites. Traders and industrial buyers have been rushing to build inventories in the United States to get ahead of any new duties, creating one of the world's largest stockpiles of the metal.
A White House official said the administration had not made a final decision on the tariffs and confirmed that the Commerce Department provided an update to Trump by a June 30 deadline set by the White House.
"The administration continues to evaluate all options to reshore copper and other critical manufacturing back to the United States," the official said.
The comments suggest tariffs are not a foregone conclusion, despite the market's expectation that the United States could extend existing duties to refined copper.
The administration has been considering tariffs on refined copper as part of Trump's broader push to rebuild U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign supplies of critical materials.
Copper is used in construction, transportation, electronics and many other industries. S&P Global (SPGI.N), expects growth in the AI and defense sectors to boost global copper demand 50% by 2040.
The U.S. imports roughly half of its copper needs each year and only has two operational copper smelters, owned by Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N), and Rio Tinto (RIO.L), respectively.
The proposed tariffs could make imported copper more expensive and improve the economics of U.S. mining, smelting and refining projects. A Rio executive, for example, told Reuters earlier this year "the current set of mechanisms and tariffs around copper" do little to offset the challenging economics of its U.S. smelter.
But broader copper tariffs could also raise costs for manufacturers that rely on the metal, including producers of electrical equipment, automobiles, construction products and other industrial goods.
That tension has complicated the administration's efforts to use tariffs to encourage domestic production without adding to inflation or undermining Trump's political message on lowering the cost of living.
The tariff uncertainty is also preventing copper from flowing to markets outside the U.S., further tightening global supply.
"As long as (tariff) policy remains unresolved, that possibility reduces the incentive to return metal to international markets," said Jacob White, a minerals analyst at Sprott Asset Management, which invests in copper producers.
U.S. RELIANT ON GLOBAL COPPER MINERS
The expectation for a copper tariff echoes 2025, when the market expected a blanket tariff on all products containing the metal. Trump, however, stopped short in July 2025 of such a sweeping tariff and instead imposed levies on pipes, wiring and other semi-finished products, much to the chagrin of companies that mine copper itself.
Trump tasked Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick with updating him by June on copper markets and recommending whether to impose a 15% tariff starting on January 1, 2027, that would rise to 30% in 2028. It was not immediately clear what Lutnick recommended to Trump.
U.S. refined copper imports have jumped 16-fold since 2015, even as production slipped 20%, according to U.S. Geological Survey data. The country has nearly 30 years' worth of supply within its borders.
Trump has pushed in the past year to bolster U.S. copper projects, including the Resolution Copper project in Arizona from BHP (BHP.AX), and Rio, and the Twin Metals project in Minnesota from Antofagasta (ANTO.L).
Trump also has moved to ban the export of electronic waste, which contains copper.
Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw and Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Christopher Cushing
