Canadian dollar extends monthly gain as higher oil prices raise inflation risk

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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TORONTO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened to a six-week high against its US counterpart on Friday as a jump in oil prices ​supported bets the Bank of Canada would tighten further, overshadowing disappointing ‌GDP data.

The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3955 per US dollar, or 71.66 US cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since September 16 at 1.3943. For ​the month, the currency was on track to gain 2%, which ​would be its biggest monthly advance since April.

Canada's economy stalled in ⁠August for the second straight month, while advance estimates showed GDP declining ​0.1% in September and annualized third-quarter growth of 1.3%. The BoC has projected ​the economy growing by 2% in the third quarter.

"Markets ignored Canadian GDP and with good reason," Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said in a note.

"While ​the figures disappointed somewhat, the BoC is forward-looking and focused upon rising ​inflation risk that has many complex drivers — like oil that is fired up this morning," ‌Holt ⁠said.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada hiked its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and said further increases might be needed to prevent soaring energy costs from driving broader inflation.

Investors see a roughly 50% ​chance the central bank ​tightens at its ⁠next policy decision in December and have fully discounted a move by January.

US crude oil futures were trading 2.7% ​higher at $104.80 a barrel as traders braced for a ​potential escalation ⁠in the US-Iran conflict after the US midterm elections. Oil is one of Canada's major exports.

Canadian bond yields eased across a steeper curve as a sharp ⁠selloff ​in technology-related stocks pushed investors into safe-haven assets ​such as US Treasuries.

The 10-year was down 2.1 basis points at 3.780%, after earlier touching its lowest ​level since September 4 at 3.768%.

Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Nia Williams

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