S&P 500 didn‘t gap bearishly, but traded bearishly Monday – today‘s analysis will be different as I want to call a spade a spade in markets and trading. Some market phases are better for profit generation than others no matter whether you are a trend follower, momentum player or tops / bottoms picker. Whether you play rotations and have to be always long something, whether you‘re more of a swing or intraday trader, there just some easier market environments than other – those where the macro, fundamental and charts align better than when markets grapple with different kind of uncertainty than usual.
Take stock market that offered finely trending moves since Sep till roughly a month ago – that‘s the bulk of our gains, and you also heard me amply highlighting real assets such as gold and oil if I had to pick the key two only – that is and that should be the source of our gains these weeks. And I‘m not even bringing up the more proper evaluation window of any strategy spanning months, and not weeks or even days only…
This is how I summed it up in our channel yesterday.
This is just like selection of people belonging to your life or not – you also select markets that you want to play, and circumstances that fit you, that let you flourish. Where would I have been if I played by someone‘s ever changing rules and goalposts? Nowhere – so, decide for yourselves. And the asset classes to attend to foremost, have been precious metals and commodities for quite a while both swing and intraday, and it all ties up to the sticky inflation and no recession that I called early in the year.
You have the frequency of positive economic surprises popping up lately, such as yesterday when I called the manufacturing data to come in as good – hence Russell 2000 gets it on the chin, and Jun rate cut odds go down to only 57%, and two cuts by Jul, good luck with that (21% odds).
Take this chart prediction as regards S&P 500 I made well before the close yesterday – and see for yourself how equities do relative to gold and oil in the last weeks – ES and NDX are resilient, but some cracks are appearing, hence adjust your own profit expectations as regards equities for the days and probably weeks still to come (swing traders in gold and oil among much else, needn‘t do a thing today as gold is going for my quite above $2,300 and oil is already at $85 target – will keep you updated via the premium gold & oil Telegram channel).
You think that JOLTS or services PMI would come in weak? Think again - I'm looking for some 8.90M (well above expected 8.76M) JOLTS today, and services unlike manufacturing didn‘t truly go into recession territory lately – so, interest rate sensitive Russell 2000 beware...
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