Strengths
- The best-performing precious metal for the week was silver, up 11.00%. Gold and silver climbed to record levels in a broad-based metals rally after the U.S. Justice Department threatened the Federal Reserve with a criminal indictment, reviving concerns over the central bank’s independence. Gold spiked toward $4,600 an ounce, while silver rose above $84 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the potential indictment comes amid threats and ongoing pressure by the administration to influence interest rate decisions, according to Bloomberg.
- Central banks continue to increase their holdings. Polish Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski plans to seek approval from the management board to raise gold holdings from 550 tons, or 28% of total reserves, to 700 tons.
- Metals continued their strong start to the year, with gold, silver, copper, and tin all reaching record highs, supported by expectations for lower U.S. interest rates and improving sentiment in Chinese financial markets. Commodities have posted substantial gains since late 2025, with precious metals benefiting from renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration and a more tense geopolitical environment, according to Bloomberg.
Weaknesses
- The worst-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down 2.84% as the market cooled from historic moves. The LBMA has appointed ICE Benchmark Administration to run the platinum and palladium benchmark price auctions beginning in the third quarter of 2026, replacing the London Metal Exchange. This move consolidates all four precious metals benchmarks under ICE, which already administers LBMA gold and silver prices.
- According to RBC, Alamos Gold fourth-quarter production totaled 142K ounces, 12% below consensus. Production was lower at Island and Young-Davidson due to winter weather in December. As a result, full-year 2025 production totaled 545K ounces, below revised guidance of 560K to 580K ounces. Alamos Gold was the worst-performing stock in the GDX this week, falling more than 6%.
- Fund outflows from silver raise questions about the durability of the metal’s rally. More than 60 silver-denominated funds have seen aggregate net outflows of nearly $860 million so far this year. This contrasts with gold, which has seen net inflows of more than $2.55 billion, according to Bloomberg.
Opportunities
- Bloomberg reports that silver, currently at $89 per ounce, remains well below its inflation-adjusted peak of more than $160 per ounce. Gold surpassed its inflation-adjusted high three months ago and continues to climb. Despite skepticism about an imminent correction, silver may simply be catching up to gold by retesting prior highs.
- Silver demand is expected to remain strong as State Grid Corp. of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan, or $574 billion, over the next five years to expand its power network. According to Shanghai Securities News, fixed asset investment will increase by roughly 40% through 2030 compared with the 2021 to 2025 period. China, the world’s largest clean energy investor, saw combined wind and solar installations surpass coal for the first time in 2024.
- Ivanhoe reported a positive update at Platreef, with the Phase 1 concentrator ramp progressing as planned and first concentrate sales completed. Shaft No. 3 remains on schedule for April 2026, increasing hoisting capacity roughly fivefold to about 5 million tons per annum. Phase 2 is on track to scale output to approximately 450,000 ounces of PGMs and gold within about 24 months, supported by a roughly $700 million senior project finance facility.
Threats
- CME Group will change the way it sets margins for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures after a surge in prices and volatile trading. The new approach will set margins based on a percentage of notional value, the CME said in a notice. Previously, margins were based on a fixed dollar amount. The shift takes effect from Tuesday’s close and follows a normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage, the CME said.
- Veteran investor Mark Mobius noted that China, India, Korea, and Taiwan currently offer the most attractive markets for global investors. Regarding gold, Mobius said he would not chase the gold price at these levels, but might consider buying if the price corrected by 20%.
- BMO’s analysis suggests that the balance between silver supply and consumption is a strong predictor of the gold/silver ratio, with periods of high physical surplus causing steady gains in the ratio. The gold/silver ratio is currently at its lowest level since 2013, below 50 at the time of writing. BMO forecasts a growing physical surplus, which is expected to push the ratio higher in the coming years, continuing a trend that has been sustained since the 1970s.
