Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin lost a key support level two days ago and failed to close back above it yesterday, despite a wick up to $90,574 at the bottom of the daily TBO Cloud. Today’s action suggests bulls are attempting to reclaim that level, which would invalidate the bear-flag formation we’ve been monitoring. A sustained close above the former support is critical for bullish confirmation, while any decisive break below it would amplify downside risk. Ultimately, the outcome of today’s daily candle will determine the next directional bias.
Ethereum and Macro Indicators
Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s weakness before spiking higher yesterday, raising the possibility of a hold at its support zone. However, ETH remains below its daily TBO Cloud in “strong bearish” mode, and its descending Slow line signals that the macro trend is still bearish. Until we see a recovery above the Cloud and confirmation of a rising Slow line, the broader downtrend for Ethereum remains intact.
Market Dominance and Stablecoins
Aggregated stablecoin dominance has pulled back slightly from its recent high but remains above the daily TBO Cloud in “strong bullish” territory, which historically translates into bearish pressure on crypto prices. Bitcoin dominance is poised to roll over after a week of consolidation, with RSI now forming a lower high—a classic bearish divergence. “Others” dominance is pushing back into its daily Cloud following an RSI reset, yet its Slow line continues to point down. Total crypto market cap (TOTALES.D) bounced off support but has yet to penetrate the daily Cloud, reinforcing the existing bearish framework.
Traditional Finance and Correlations
The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a modest rebound, while the Japanese yen continues its weakening trend without intervention from the Bank of Japan. US equities rallied on news of cancelled tariffs, lifting the S&P 500 back toward the top of its daily TBO Cloud, though the price remains in bearish consolidation within the Cloud. S&P futures have nearly retraced to the daily Fast line. The DJI and NDX recovered, but the FANG index lags. Nvidia’s daily Cloud compression hints at an impending volatility expansion. The VIX’s drop to 16.89 is irregular; a move below the daily Cloud at 16.05 would signal further easing of volatility, though risks persist. Japan’s Nikkei printed a Springboard Bounce off its daily Fast line.
Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and Base Metals
Oil closed up 2% yesterday, stalling at the top of its daily TBO Cloud—a typical reversal point. Gold experienced a mild sell-off after the tariff news, with RSI registering a lower high; the next upside target remains 5,133. Silver is weakening but retains potential to test the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near 122. Platinum shows signs of stalling, and copper appears set to drop into its daily Cloud by week’s end, transitioning to bearish consolidation mode.
Altcoin Landscape
The majority of altcoins remain below their daily TBO Clouds in “strong bearish” mode, with descending Slow lines confirming negative macro trends. XRP and Solana have triggered open-short signals, while Ethereum Classic may see a temporary bounce off its daily support. Chiliz retraced to its Fast line and is testing resistance for a Springboard Bounce, and outliers like RIVER continue to defy broader market weakness. Despite a bounce in the top-100 market cap index, the overall altcoin environment remains fragile, and Bitcoin’s ability to hold its reclaimed support will be pivotal for any sustained recovery.
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