CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 11:37 a.m. EST 16 March 2026 $5,003.50 (Basis the April 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $4,850
Initial Timeframe: 16 March 2026 to 23 March 2026
Stop Loss: $5,100
Gold prices have been on a declining trend overall since 10 March, when prices reached $5,248.70. Gold is testing support levels and a firm break below $5,000 could push prices toward $4,850 initially, at least on a short-term basis. Technicals suggest lower gold prices for this week.
This said, the political and economic environment remains longer term positive for gold investment and prices. It is not clear whether gold’s fundamentals are supportive of prices in the short-term, as it may be that physical investment demand has backed off in the shorter term ETF market. Comex open interest has been flat, not rising, while Comex trading volumes dropped sharply after the late-January spike to record high gold prices. Insofar as shorter term and non-traditional gold investors may have cooled their enthusiasm for gold as a short-term long, that could add to the potential for a drop in gold prices in the next several trading days.
Markets appear to be taking some respite from concerns about the world for the moment. It could be that comments from the U.S. administration about various ways to open the Strait of Hormuz shortly might be easing some concern. As of the writing of this Trade Recommendation, equity markets were up while oil, gold, and silver were down.
The recent optimism about a resolution to the U.S. and Israel war with Iran could be short-lived. The potential for the war not ending soon is high, reminiscent of the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and the Russian ‘six-day special military operation’ in Ukraine and the 1979 – 1989 Russian invasion of Afghanistan. It is too early to say that potential oil flow disruptions, as well as the military, political and economic situation will be resolved in a matter of weeks. The bottle necks built up will take time to flow normally. Uncertainty remains high.
Any sell-off in gold prices in the near term would be expected to be taken as a buying opportunity by short-term investors. Physical demand for gold in jewelry form is reported to have eased. This said, prices could quickly reverse course and rise sharply once more on an escalation of military violence in the Middle East.
Meanhile the roll of the April Comex contract is not likely to support gold prices, as April open interest already is down to 20.7 million ounces.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
