Some of you were quite upset with me after an interview I did with KITCO in December of 2025. In that interview, I noted that metals were entering the final segment of their parabolic blow-off rallies and 2026 will likely usher in a sizeable correction.
That blow-off rally was even more powerful than I had expected at the time, as we clearly exceeded my ideal targets. Yet, as were approaching the highs struck in January of 2026, I had sold just about every remaining mining stock I owned since my initial purchases back in the last quarter of 2015, with the final 3% being sold within two days of the actual highs struck in the metals.
Of course, most metals enthusiast do not believe that metals should see corrections, so my view was met with the expected disbelief. This was a typical comment that I saw regarding my view:
“Silver is not done running. Forget technicals. There isn’t enough silver for industry period.”
But, as we now know, silver topped around $123, and then saw a rapid correction of almost 50%. And, as I noted in a follow up article, I did not believe that the correction was done with that one decline. Rather, these structures usually take shape as a 3-wave correction, with the initial decline into early February only being the first leg of the 3-wave correction I was expecting.
As I write this article, it seems as though gold, silver and the mining stock ETF GDX are setting up to drop to lower lows in this correction, which should complete this segment of the correction which began in January. This will likely set up a larger degree rally, for which one can now layer into positions as we approach those next lower lows.
The question will then center around the nature of the rally that is seen after those lower lows are struck. In GDX, and many of the individual mining stock charts, the structure seems to strongly suggest they rally to new all-time highs, with the GDX pointing us to a minimum target in the 130-150 region.
In fact, our MMA (Metals, Mining and Agriculture) analyst team just posted a Special Update on Elliottwavetrader.net outlining 41 individual mining stocks that present the best opportunities based upon the charts they analyze.
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10276386
That brings me to the issue I have with gold and silver. There is a strong probability that the next rally in both those charts will only be a corrective one, which means that new all-time highs may not be as likely at this time as compared to the 41 individual mining stocks outlined above. Therefore, I view the mining stocks as representing the strongest probability for profitability, at least as they are structured at this time.
Once we see the nature of the rally off the impending low, then we can make a more accurate determination. For now, my expectation is that the rally in metals can take us back towards the highs, but ultimately they may fail and remain in a longer-term correction.
However, with that being said, should the rally begin with a clear 5-wave rally, then that could change my current assessment of gold and silver.
I also have to add that if these charts do not see lower lows in the coming week or two, and instead break back out over the highs struck on June 17th before striking lower lows, it will likely lead to rally that could prolong this correction and push those lower lows out for many weeks before we can maintain an expectation for the next major rally.
To summarize my view, we are tracking a pattern which suggests that a major low can be seen in the near term, leading to a rally into the end of the year in the metals complex. To this end, there are a number of mining stocks that are presenting excellent opportunities for new all-time highs. However, gold and silver remain a question as to whether they will see higher highs in that rally. I am waiting for more information based upon the nature of the next rally in those charts. But, at this time, my current expectation is that the rally in silver and gold will be a corrective one.
