In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a precious metals market update after gold broke below $4,000. Gold reached CPM Group's $3,975 ultra-short-term downside target before falling as low as $3,963. Jeff explains why prices may remain under pressure through August, discusses major support near $3,800, and outlines why CPM does not expect gold to decline to $3,500.
The outlook also examines the remaining open interest in the August COMEX futures contract. Roughly 23 million ounces remained open as of the previous day, meaning many short positions must either be closed or rolled into the October and December contracts. That buying activity could temporarily support gold prices and potentially lift the market toward $4,200 to $4,300 before another test lower during August.
Jeffrey also reviews weakening economic conditions across the United States, China, Europe, and other major economies, along with persistent geopolitical risks. CPM Group believes these factors could strengthen investment demand during the final four months of the year, potentially driving gold back toward $5,000 into 2027.
The presentation also covers the recent rally in silver, which reached the mid-$50s before triggering CPM Group's new short-term sell signal. Silver may remain under pressure over the next six weeks before recovering later in the year. Jeffrey also discusses platinum and palladium, noting that both metals have surrendered much of their earlier gains and continue to face short-term downside risk.
- 0:00 – Gold breaks below $4,000
- 1:32 – August COMEX rolls and a possible gold rebound
- 3:34 – Economic weakness and geopolitical risks
- 7:03 – The gold bull market and long-term repricing
- 8:52 – Silver reaches its target and may fall further
- 9:28 – Platinum, palladium, and the PGM Yearbook briefing
