CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:26 p.m. EDT 1 September 2026 $4,367.90 (Basis the October 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $4,210
Initial Timeframe: 1 September 2026 to 11 September 2026
Stop Loss: $4,480
Gold prices have retreated from the recent peak of $4,718 on 25 August. Today prices tested an intraday low of $4,340.60 before recovering. The price rise in August may have been too fast from the $4,000 to $4,150 range that prices moved in during July. There was bound to be some profit-taking.
The sell-off in gold over the past two days appears to CPM to be an ultra short term reaction to last Friday’s Federal Reserve Board Chairman’s speech. It is expected to persist for a couple days more before prices resume their upward trajectory.
There is some suggestion that the weight on gold prices could be coming from a rising expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates sooner rather than later due to the ongoing relatively high level of inflation, which is higher than targeted by the Fed. While this suggests a stronger dollar and lower dollar-denominated commodity prices, for gold this may not be such a weight on prices. This is because all of the financial, economic, and political problems the world is facing. These headlines include the war between the U.S. and Iran, tariff tensions, concerns about the U.S. dollar, the political situation an election coming up in the United States, and more. The upward pressures on interest rates reflect these issues, not economic strength.
There are more than enough issues of concern for investors to continue to buy and hold gold. This said, in the very near term gold does trade on technicals, and technically there is scope for gold prices to decline a bit more. However, it would not be surprising for gold prices to move higher beyond an initial decline. September has typically been a seasonally strong month for a rising gold price.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
