My September 23, 2026 read separates confirmed resistance breaks from forming signals and conditional pullback setups.
Bitcoin’s Slow line starts turning upward
Bitcoin / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
BTC closed red on the daily chart on Tuesday, but it is already pushing higher again. The Slow line is curling upward, indicating that a bullish macro trend is taking shape. ETH is echoing the same sentiment with its trend and TBO. The upward turn is the important observation; I am not attaching a new numerical BTC target or claiming a newly confirmed BTC Breakout today.
Stablecoin dominance approaches an important weekly confirmation
USDT.D+USDC.D · 1W · CRYPTOCAP
Combined stablecoin dominance continues to fall and is right at historical TBO Support, moving lower still. Weekly RSI is now below 25. If confirmed, this indicates a strong bearish downtrend likely to continue. The weekly confirmation condition matters: a reading below 25 on the current chart is not the same as a completed weekly confirmation. Dominance measures market share, not the spot price of stablecoins.
ALT dominance keeps its distinct signal states
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, % · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
OTHERS.D printed its third TBO Breakout on Tuesday and closed higher, although RSI put in a lower high. TOTALE50.D also closed above TBO Resistance and remains strong bullish despite lower RSI highs. TOTALE100.D closed above resistance too, but it is still inside its Cloud in bullish consolidation. I remain bullish on that chart without reclassifying its current state as an out-of-Cloud strong-bullish trend. These are dominance charts, not spot-price targets.
The broader ALT market breaks long-term resistance
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10, $ · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
OTHERS, the market cap excluding the top 10, confirmed a close above long-term overhead resistance. Its weekly RSI is currently higher at 76.50. This is a distinct chart from OTHERS.D and must not inherit the dominance chart’s lower RSI high. The TOTAL3ESBTC chart confirmed another TBO Breakout on Tuesday, while OTHERS/BTC pushed back above long-term overhead resistance. These ratio observations complement, but do not replace, the market-cap evidence.
A rising dollar remains the hitch
U.S. Dollar Index · 1D · TVC
DXY is moving higher. Bitcoin does not seem concerned right now, but I see a stronger dollar as potentially bad news for TradFi and BTC. That is a risk to monitor, not a claim that BTC has already turned lower. The Euro separately confirmed a close below TBO Support; the rising dollar is also bad for the Yen. TradFi does not appear too concerned so far, and the Nasdaq printed a TBO Breakout and made a new high. VIX is separately falling toward TBO Support at 13.35; if that level is hit, it will likely mark a local top. It has not been reported hit.
PENDLE offers a conditional Fast-line dip setup
PENDLE / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
PENDLE is developing a TBT Bearish Divergence, not a confirmed one; as long as its Slow line points upward, I have more confidence buying a Fast-line dip at 2.285 for a bounce toward TBO Resistance at 2.798. That is a conditional setup, not an entry already filled, and I have not supplied a stop or leverage.
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