Oct 23 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), is trading near record highs, but it has made surprisingly little upward progress over the last few months and has tough work ahead to reach new heights, technical analysis suggests.Technical analysis ​uses charts of past price moves to map out where a market might go next. Analysts look for points ‌on the chart that could act as support, which is a floor for prices during a slide. They also look for resistance, which is a ceiling that can cap gains. Moving averages are particularly reliable guides to support and resistance. They smooth out price swings by averaging prices over a set period, such ​as 50, 100 or 200 days.Because moving averages continuously update, they can move up or down. Previous highs and lows also ​serve as markers. So do big round numbers, which analysts call psychological levels because traders tend to ⁠focus on them. Another tool is called a Fibonacci retracement -- a mathematical calculation that marks the percentages a market often pulls back ​to after a big move.The S&amp;P 500 closed down more than 1% on Thursday at 7,663.43, led by technology shares, according to LSEG data. If ​the index keeps sliding, chart watchers will want to see whether it can hold above the October 16 low at 7,631.77 and the October 1 low at 7,616.78. Beneath those levels is the rising 100-day moving average, now near 7,604. The index has not closed below that average since April 7, which ​adds to its significance.A close below the 100-day moving average would shift attention to the September 16 low at 7,507.77 and the 23.6% ​Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-October advance at 7,484.00.Below that is the June-to-July trough at roughly 7,237 to 7,313. A trough is the low point on the ‌chart. That ⁠zone also contains the rising 200-day moving average near 7,288, an average that long-term investors watch closely. A retreat to this area would leave the index roughly 6.5% to 7.4% below its record closing high.On the upside, the 50-day moving average sits near 7,703. A move above the October 21 high at 7,770.40 would put the record highs back in play. A breakout above the October 6 intraday record of 7,844.52 ​could open the door to a ​test of the 8,000 psychological ⁠level.An intraday record is the highest price reached during a trading session, whatever the closing price.For now, the index is hemmed in between a thick band of support below it and a series of ​recent highs overhead. A decisive move through either side would likely set the tone for the ​next period.What the ⁠chart shows:The S&amp;P 500 is near record highs but has made little progress in recent monthsA close below the 100-day moving average near 7,604 could target 7,507.77, 7,484.00 and the 7,237 to 7,313 zoneA move above 7,770.40 would put record highs back in play, and a break above 7,844.52 could lead ⁠to 8,000(Mapping ​the Market is a daily column written by Reuters journalists. The commentary is ​based on a technical analysis of financial charts, which helps assess the likelihood of future price moves but does not guarantee the outcome. The column does not constitute investment ​advice or trading recommendations. )Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Burton Frierson and David Gaffen

Mapping the Market: Path to S&P 500 rally strewn with obstacles

NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - US stock investors face a pivotal week, with corporate earnings reports led by major AI players and a Federal Reserve meeting both posing critical tests ​for a suddenly shaky market rally.Weakness in technology shares left investors on edge about the state of the AI trade that has driven the US equity bull ‌market that just marked its fourth anniversary.The AI pullback deepened on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), posting its biggest one-day drop since June. Investors were disappointed by quarterly reports from Meta (META.O), and Lam Research (LRCX.O). Meta is one of the hyperscalers spending massively to build out data centers, while Lam is a high-flying semiconductor company, one of a group that has been among the biggest AI stock winners.Three other hyperscalers -- Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Amazon (AMZN.O), -- headline a packed week of ​quarterly results, including about one-third of S&amp;P 500 companies. The Fed's interest rate policy meeting on Wednesday also could rattle markets."There are a lot of balls in the air," ​said Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro."Next week, you have a lot more tech earnings, and right now the market is ⁠taking a discerning eye as it relates to all the spending that goes along with artificial intelligence," Giorgi said. "The market's just not giving the benefit of the doubt to companies that ​are spending a ton of money on building this all out, which to us is actually very healthy, but still does augur for some short-term pain."Investors also have their focus trained on ​the US midterm elections on November 3, with growing bets that the Democrats will wrest control of the US Congress away from President Donald Trump's Republican party. The series of market catalysts could ratchet up volatility over the next couple of weeks and challenge optimism that has helped lift the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index (.SPX), up about 12% in 2026.HYPERSCALERS ON THE HOT SEATRobust US profit growth has underpinned the stock market's gains this year ​in the face of headwinds including spiking Treasury yields and rising energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict.With more than 100 companies having posted results so far, third-quarter S&amp;P 500 ​earnings are on pace to have climbed more than 32% from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES data. Next week is the busiest of the reporting season."I think earnings will determine whether this ... tech ‌pullback is ⁠a buying opportunity, or is there a deeper correction ahead," said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management. "What we need is just another round of really strong earnings."Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday. Amazon's results are due Thursday. Focus will be on the guidance the companies give on capital spending plans and whether they are seeing returns on the massive outlays.Capital spending from hyperscalers, expected to be around $800 billion this year, is boosting the bottom lines for a wide swath of companies involved in the AI buildout. But investors are wary of the sustainability of such ​spending amid mounting financing costs."Earnings are critical ​to the overall confidence level of the ⁠AI trade and how much longer the spend will continue," said Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion &amp; Walsh Asset Management.FED EXPECTED TO PAUSE ON RATES, FOR NOWQuarterly reports next week from chip companies Intel (INTC.O), and Sandisk (SNDK.O), also could influence the AI trade.Elsewhere, other high-profile companies ​set to report next week include drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY.N), oil majors Exxon (XOM.N), and Chevron (CVX.N), and industrial equipment giant Caterpillar (CAT.N).The prospect for more ​interest rate hikes also comes ⁠into focus with the Fed meeting. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, in an effort to control above-target inflation, but Fed fund futures late on Thursday suggested only a 5% chance theFed will hike again when it gives its policy statement on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.One factor: Investors are dubious that the Fed will want to increase rates just ⁠a week ​before the midterm elections.However, markets are leaning toward a hike at the next meeting in December, with futures suggesting ​an 80% probability of such a move then.Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital, said he will be watching for any hints about the rate path at Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference following the decision."Does he say ​something to give an idea about December, because right now the expectation is there is going to be a hike?" Todd said. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, editing by Colin Barr and David Gregorio

Wall St Week Ahead Earnings flood, Fed meeting pose pivotal tests for rickety AI market rally

Oct 23 (Reuters) - Futures tracking Canada’s blue-chip stocks fell on Friday, after oil prices hit their highest since May on ​escalation in the Middle East conflict, keeping investors concerned ‌about prolonged inflation and higher-for-longer US interest rates.December futures on the S&amp;P/TSX index were down 0.28% at 06:11 a.m. ET (10:11 GMT). Brent ​crude rose above $114 a barrel to its highest in ​more than five months, as hostilities intensified between ⁠Yemen’s Houthis and the Saudi-led coalitionSpot gold prices touched ​its lowest since July 17 on Friday as oil-driven inflation ​worries weighed on the yellow metalTraders expect the US Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold at its policy meeting next week, with ​a quarter-point hike priced in for December, according to ​LSEG dataIn Canada, markets are pricing in a quarter-point Bank of ‌Canada ⁠rate hike next week, and nearly a percentage-point hike over the next 12 months, according to LSEG dataCanadian Prime Minister Mike Carney said engineering firm AtkinsRealis (ATRL.TO), &nbsp;is in the running ​to help build ​Turkey's third ⁠nuclear power plantUS President Donald Trump said on Thursday that jet maker Bombardier (BBDb.TO), will invest $270 ​million in the US, days after he to ⁠ban the company from the countryInvestors will also assess August retail sales data, expected later in the dayFOR CANADIAN ⁠MARKETS NEWS, ​CLICK ON CODES:TSX market reportCanadian ​dollar and bonds report CA/Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directoryReporting by Anand ​Gopal and Utkarsh Hathi in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid

TSX futures slip as oil rally adds to inflation worries

Oct 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street futures ticked lower on Friday as caution prevailed after a ‌sharp selloff in AI-linked stocks over concerns about the sector's massive funding requirements, while telecom shares slid on fears of increased competition from SpaceX.AT&amp;T (T.N), , Verizon (VZ.N), and T-Mobile (TMUS.O), were down more than 4% in premarket trading after a report said SpaceX (SPCX.O), was ​in talks with cellular infrastructure companies about launching a nationwide wireless carrier program. US cell tower ​operators, however, gained from this news, with Crown Castle (CCI.N), up 8.6% and American Tower (AMT.N), ⁠up 6.1%.SpaceX shares gained 1.5%.AI-related shares swung sharply this week, first coming under pressure over CoreWeave's (CRWV.O), debt burden ​and the cost of financing AI investment, then rallying on Wednesday after upbeat results from SpaceX (SPCX.O), and Super ​Micro (SMCI.O), .The gains reversed on Thursday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC), fell nearly 3%. The slide accelerated following Meta's (META.O), nearly 8% decline after the Facebook parent reported its first cash outflow in more than a decade amid concerns over its AI-related expenditures.On Friday, CoreWeave ​shares were flat, and 'Magnificent 7' stocks were little changed, with Meta down 0.6%.Market focus remains on the ​earnings season, with major companies such as Microsoft (MSFT.O), , Alphabet (GOOGL.O), and Amazon (AMZN.O), reporting next week."Given the concentration of these companies within ‌US indices, ⁠their results could have significant implications for broader market sentiment," said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com."Investors are becoming increasingly demanding when it comes to AI investment, with attention shifting from revenue growth towards profitability, capital expenditure and tangible returns."At 07:19 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 314 points, or 0.59%, and ​S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down ​19.25 points, or 0.25%. ⁠Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 33.75 points, or 0.12%.Brent crude held near a more than five-month high amid Middle East supply concerns, adding to inflation worries ahead ​of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.Nasdaq was on track for a ​weekly loss, ⁠while the benchmark S&amp;P 500 and the blue-chip Dow remained higher, supported by gains in defensive sectors as investors sought refuge from volatility in technology stocks.S&amp;P 500's third-quarter profit growth is now forecast at 32.3%, up from ⁠30.7% previously, ​according to LSEG data.In other premarket moves, gold miner Newmont (NEM.N), fell ​1.3% after reporting quarterly results and warning that unit costs are expected to trend higher in 2027.Bloom Energy (BE.N), dipped 1.6% even after the energy ​firm raised its fiscal 2026 forecast.Reporting by Tharuniyaa Lakshmi and Ragini Mathur in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli

Wall Street futures edge lower after AI selloff, telecom slide

Oct 23 (Reuters) - Gold edged slightly up from a three-month low hit ‌earlier on Friday and is on track for its steepest weekly loss since June, as rising oil prices fuelled higher-for-longer Federal Reserve rate expectations and pressured the non-yielding ​precious metal. Spot gold was at $4,026.15 per ounce by 0936 GMT after ​earlier dropping to $3,986.50, its lowest level since July 20. Bullion has lost ⁠3.5% so far this week, the second consecutive weekly loss. US gold ​futures for December delivery fell 0.5% to $4,040.70 per ounce."The rise in oil prices ​could result in real interest rates remaining higher for longer, which would reduce the relative attractiveness of investing in and holding gold," Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at ​Capital Economics, said.Brent crude touched a more than five-month high on ​Friday, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concern over further disruption to energy supplies. [O/R]Rising ‌oil ⁠prices can stoke inflation, prompting investors to scale back Fed rate-cut bets.Market expectations of a rate hike at the Fed's Oct 27–28 meeting are at 9%, while it is 81% for December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, opens new tab. Investors are ​also awaiting US ​Personal Consumption Expenditures ⁠data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on October 29 for fresh clues on progress toward its 2% target.The European Central Bank ​meets on Thursday against a backdrop of upheaval in France ​and ⁠an Iran war that is keeping energy prices above $100, meaning inflation risks remain elevated.Among other metals, spot silver slid 1.2% to $53.8882 per ounce, and palladium dropped ⁠0.3% ​to $1,051.06, hitting their lowest since November 2025 and ​June 2025 respectively. Spot platinum fell 0.8% to $1,557.03 per ounce, its lowest since July.All three metals were ​headed for weekly declines.Reporting by Vishak Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair

Gold off three-month lows as oil rally fans inflation worries

HONG KONG, New York Oct 23 (Reuters) - Global hedge funds were hit by a fresh tech reckoning this week, with major strategies posting their worst ​day since the COVID-era market rout.A renewed selloff in big tech stocks, driven by ‌growing skepticism over the massive AI buildout spending, swept through global markets and dealt a heavy blow to global hedge funds. "If last Thursday felt bad, today has been worse," Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage team said ​in a note sent to clients. All three major strategies tracked by Goldman Sachs lost ​more than 1% on October 22, a first since the COVID pandemic, with losses ⁠spanning fundamental equity long-short, systematic and multi-strategy funds.One catalyst for the latest selloff was Meta, ​one of the hyperscalers spending billions to build AI models, after the company said it ​would issue a new class of shares to help it raise funds.Meta Platforms (META.O), slumped 7% on Thursday, its largest drop since July. Nvidia (NVDA.O), tumbled 4%, while the broader Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), lost 2.6%, its largest ​decline since June 5.Asian stocks, from South Korea to China, were also at the ​center of the selloff, pressured by higher oil prices and fears over hefty AI spending. The downturn triggered deleveraging among hedge funds, ‌market ⁠participants said, as losses in crowded AI-linked trades forced investors to cut exposure and rein in risk.Global fundamental long-short funds, or stock pickers, have dropped 3.8% so far in October, but are still up 8.8% year-to-date, Goldman Sachs estimates.Performance was weighed down by losses on China ​and technology holdings, as ​well as a ⁠squeeze in crowded short positions, the bank said.Tech-focused and Asia-focused hedge funds were among the biggest losers this month through to October 22, down roughly ​10% and 9%, respectively, according to Goldman.Masaki Gotoh, a partner at ​Tokyo-based TriVista ⁠Capital, said the hedge fund had trimmed its hardware investments since late June."I'm actually a very strong believer in AI... But the concentration level is staggering. If you go back to ⁠the IT ​dotcom bubble, that had similar types of concentrations ​and we saw that happen. The circular financing is also a source of some concern," he said.Reporting by ​Summer Zhen and Anirban Sen, additional reporting by Rocky Swift in Tokyo Editing by Shri Navaratnam

Hedge fund returns worsen this week as tech selloff deepens

Precious metals tumble despite falling yields as Hormuz tensions intensify - Kitco PM Report

War in Iran, higher energy prices are only delaying gold's rally to $5,000; mining stocks remain undervalued – Gabelli

TORONTO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened to a one-month high against its US counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose and the gap narrowed ​between US and Canadian interest rates.The loonie was trading 0.3% higher ‌at 1.4007 per US dollar, or 71.39 US cents, its strongest intraday level since September 21 and putting the currency on course for the sixth straight day of gains. The daily ​winning streak would be the longest since April. "Most importantly for the currency, ​the repricing of the Bank of Canada outlook has narrowed the ⁠two-year US-Canada yield spread," said Kevin Ford, an FX &amp; macro strategist at Convera. "That ​has reduced the US dollar’s rate advantage at the same time that elevated oil ​prices have supported Canada’s terms of trade."The gap between Canada's 2-year yield and the equivalent US rate narrowed by 11 basis points to about 141 basis points in favor of the US ​note.Concerns about the sustainability of the AI outlook resurfaced, boosting the safe-haven appeal of ​US Treasuries.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia ‌stoked ⁠concerns of further disruption to energy supplies from the key exporting region. US crude oil futures were trading 2.2% higher at $99.26 a barrel."The USD-CAD is looking to test the 1.40 level on the downside, but extending the move below that threshold ​will likely require ​further support from ⁠Canadian data and the Bank of Canada," Ford said.Investors see a roughly 75% chance the Bank of Canada will raise its ​benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% next ​Wednesday. Bets ⁠on a hike have increased in recent days after hawkish comments from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem and evidence of rising expectations for long-term inflation.Canadian retail sales data for ⁠August is ​due on Friday — analysts expect sales to rebound 1.3% ​after they declined 0.7% in July.Canadian government bonds tracked the moves in US Treasuries. The 10-year yield ​was down 7.8 basis points at 3.787%.Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Aurora Ellis

Canadian dollar extends daily winning streak as interest rate spreads narrow

Newmont beats third-quarter earnings expectations as higher gold sales boost profits; miner raises 2026 cost outlook

Nippon Steel (TYO: 5401) will invest about $3 billion in the U.S. Steel-operated Mon Valley works in Pennsylvania to upgrade the plant’s hot rolling facility, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday.The move is part of the Japanese steelmaker’s pledge to invest $11 billion in U.S. Steel by 2028, following its acquisition of the company in 2025.Nippon Steel did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside regular business hours.Mon Valley’s hot rolling equipment, which heats slabs of iron from blast furnaces and rolls them into thinner steel, has been in operation for about 90 years, Nikkei added.The new equipment is set to enter operation in the second half of 2029, which would enable production of higher-quality steel, the report said.Nippon Steel raised its fiscal 2026 earnings forecast in August, lifted by stronger U.S. Steel earnings and a firm steel market.(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)

Nippon Steel to spend $3 billion in U.S. Steel plant equipment upgrade, Nikkei reports

Oct 22 (Reuters) - US President Donald ​Trump on Thursday signed an ‌executive order aimed at reducing the costs of single-family home ownership and ​mortgages, the White House ​said in a statement.The order ⁠instructs the Federal Housing ​Finance Agency to launch a ​pilot program that would proactively cancel borrowers' mortgage insurance premiums once they ​meet equity requirements based ​on current market value, and to make ‌permanent ⁠an FHFA pilot waiving title insurance on refinancings. It also creates a task force on ​manufactured housing ​innovation ⁠to expand factory-built housing eligible for federal ​programs, and directs the ​agriculture ⁠and veterans affairs secretaries to reduce interest rates on single-family ⁠home ​loans issued by ​their departments.Reporting by Chistian Martinez and Ryan ​Patrick Jones; Editing by David Ljunggren

Trump signs order aimed at reducing single-family housing costs

Major mining and steelmaking companies, including Vale (NYSE: VALE) and CSN (BVMF: CSNA3), won lots in a natural gas auction held by Brazilian state-run oil firm PPSA on Thursday, data from the auction platform showed.The first auction held by PPSA for direct sales of state-owned natural gas to end consumers concluded with all the volume of 1.1 million cubic meters per day being purchased.The offer was divided into 110 lots, which were awarded to companies in key sectors that are major gas consumers.Winners included Vale, CSN, Gerdau (BVMF: GGBR4), Braskem (BVMF: BRKM5), Samarco, Ternium Brasil (NYSE: TX), Evonik (ETR: EVK) and Ingredion (NYSE: INGR).“A historic auction for Brazil,” Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira said in a post on X.PPSA expects to raise 376 million reais ($74.6 million) over the 10 months of gas supply awarded at the auction, its president said.($1 = 5.0390 reais)(Reporting by Leticia Fucuchima in Sao Paulo; Writing by Fernando Cardoso; Editing by Gabriel Araujo and Matthew Lewis)

Vale, CSN among winners in Brazil natural gas auction

NLC India (NSE: NLCI) said on Thursday it has signed an agreement with Odisha’s state investment agency to pursue a coal-fired power plant, a coal-gasification study tied to fertilizer production and a beach sand minerals project.The planned thermal plant would involve an investment of 350 billion rupees ($3.69 billion) and have a capacity of 3,200 megawatt, the state-owned miner and power producer said.The beach sand mineral processing facility would involve a tentative investment of 20 billion rupees.While NLC did not disclose the investment for the coal-gasification proposal, it said it would explore the possibility of coal gasification and the production of synthesis gas for its use in the fertilizer sector.Coal gasification converts coal into synthesis gas, mainly hydrogen and carbon monoxide, that is used to make chemicals and fertilizers, while beach sand minerals such as ilmenite, rutile and zircon are used in pigments, ceramics, aerospace and titanium-based products.The move marks a significant commitment to coal-based infrastructure despite global pressure to shift toward cleaner energy, as electricity demand surges.NLC estimates the power project could create about 4,000 jobs and the minerals facility about 500.($1 = 94.8175 Indian rupees)(Reporting by Anuran Sadhu in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)

NLC India, Odisha agency sign pact for coal power, minerals ventures

Copper fell to its lowest in more than five weeks on Thursday as further inflows into London Metal Exchange warehouses eased some supply fears, even though expectations of regional supply bottlenecks persisted outside the US.Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 1.8% at $14,089 a metric ton as of 1600 GMT. It hit a session low of $14,031, its weakest since September 15.Copper stocks in LME warehouses climbed for a fourth day after 29,050 tons of inflows on Wednesday, chiefly in the US storage hub of New Orleans.Total LME copper stocks now stand at 272,950 tons, the highest since July 24, after earlier flows into New Orleans and Baltimore this week. Around 62% of all LME copper inventories are currently in the US.Alastair Munro, senior metals strategist at broker Marex, said the recent build in LME copper stocks was the result of the COMEX premium shrinking as contract delivery dates draw closer.Traders have been shipping copper to the US COMEX exchange for much of this year, attempting to head off potential import tariffs on the metal, pushing COMEX prices higher than LME prices.However, the front of the curve now shows COMEX trading at a discount to the LME, encouraging flows on to the LME instead. The backwardation on the LME – a market structure where prices for prompt delivery are higher than those further forward – has also incentivised deliveries.The cash LME copper contract was last trading at a premium of $116 a ton to the three-month forward contract, indicating ongoing near-term tightness.Elsewhere, sell-off in equity markets on doubts over the AI outlook weighed on the industrial metals complex.Aluminium fell 1% to $3,010 a ton, zinc lost 2.2% to $3,670 and lead dipped 0.7% to $1,896.50, even after there was an order to withdraw 46,800 tons of the metal from warehouses in Singapore.Nickel slid 1% to $16,060 after a 3.7% jump in the previous session on signs of production cuts in Indonesia, while tin dropped 1.7% to $50,330.(Reporting by Tom Daly; Additional reporting by Solomon Cefai; Editing by Tasim Zahid and Diti Pujara)

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