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Manufacturing PMI 51.9 in March vs 52.6 in Feb
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Non-manufacturing PMI expands at fastest pace in nearly 12
years
(Adds chart)
By Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo
BEIJING, March 31 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing
activity expanded at a slower pace in March, official data
showed on Friday, raising doubts about the strength of a
post-COVID factory recovery amid weaker global demand and a
property market downturn.
The services sector was stronger, with activity expanding at
the fastest pace in nearly 12 years after the end of China's
zero-COVID policy in December boosted transportation,
accommodation and construction.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI)
stood at 51.9, against 52.6 in February, according to data from
the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), above the 50-point mark
that separates expansion and contraction in activity on a
monthly basis.
That slightly exceeded expectations of 51.5 tipped by
economists in a Reuters poll, and led to the yuan strengthening
against the dollar. The February figure had grown at the fastest
pace in more than a decade.
China's economic activity picked up in the first two months
of 2023 as consumption and infrastructure investment drove a
recovery after the end of COVID-19 disruptions and retail sales
swung back to growth.
Nomura economists said the strong data suggested China's
economy had reached a "sweet spot" after the end of property
tightening measures and the zero-COVID policy.
"However, amid rapidly worsening geopolitical tensions and
financial concerns ?outside of China, this may not last long,"
they added in a note.
Exports remain weak and new home sales continue to fall,
although the rate of decline is narrowing.
Companies face challenges including weak demand, tight
availability of capital and high operating costs, and the
foundations for an economic rebound need to be further
consolidated, NBS said in an accompanying statement.
To support the rebound, China's central bank this month
unexpectedly cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as
reserves for the first time this year.
While business and consumer sentiment is starting to pick
up, the manufacturing sector remains under pressure amid
sluggish global demand and stubbornly high costs.
Any fallout from a recent crisis of confidence in the global
banking sector could also affect demand for China's goods,
adding to pressure on manufacturers.
Official data this week showed the slump in Chinese
industrial firms' profits deepened in the first two months of
the year, marking a downbeat start to the recovery.
Factory activity was hit by slowing growth in production and
customer demand, with the output and new orders sub-indexes
showing declines from February's levels.
The new export order sub-index fell to 50.4 against 52.4 in February, pointing to lacklustre external demand.
STRONG RECOVERY IN SERVICES ACTIVITY In contrast the non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 58.2 versus 56.3 in February, reaching the highest level since May 2011 as the services sector recovered. "The strong momentum will likely continue in the coming months, as the new order index for the service sector continued to rise," said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Retail sales in the first two months jumped 3.5% from a year before, reversing a 1.8% annual fall seen in December, raising hopes of an economic revival led by consumption as flagging global demand weakens exports. The government's softening tone toward the private sector is also boosting market confidence. Alibaba Group founder Jack Ma's return and the firm's plans for a major revamp have been taken as a signal that Beijing's regulatory crackdown on private business is ending. "These policy actions will help the economy to keep the strong momentum. We think GDP growth may surpass 6% this year," Zhang said. The world's second-biggest economy set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% after it cooled to only 3% last year, one of the weakest showings in nearly half a century. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ China's factory activity expands at slower pace ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Reporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Jamie Freed)
