CEE MARKETS-FX gains muted, eyes again on rate outlooks this week

By Jason Hovet PRAGUE, April 3 (Reuters) - Central European currencies' recent run slowed on Monday, with a jump in oil prices giving a boost to the dollar and dragging on risk appetite, while market focus in the region was again turned toward signs of hawkish monetary policy. After the Czech and Hungarian central banks sought to cool expectations of interest rate cuts after meetings last week, Romanian and Polish policymakers will meet in the coming days and are expected to stick to steady policy like their regional counterparts. "We expect rates to remain unchanged," ING said of Romania's Tuesday rate meeting. "However (interbank rate) Robor is below the policy rate and in recent days we see pressure on leu weakening, so we can hear a more hawkish tone." The Romanian leu edged up 0.1% to 4.943 to the euro on Monday. Poland's central bank is also likely to hold steady on policy later this week, and some rate setters there have also recently signalled no rush to begin easing policy, with inflation still high. Polish headline inflation slowed to 16.2% in March, preliminary data last week showed, but the deceleration was slower than expected, another signal of tight policy being needed for now. The International Monetary Fund last month said the central bank should be ready to hike rates if needed, saying loose fiscal policy might harm the fight to bring down inflation. The zloty was up less than 0.1% on Monday and has
trailed gains of peers in the region by a distance this year so far. S&P Global's purchasing managers' indices in Poland and the Czech Republic on Monday showed manufacturing shrinking more last month. The crown was stable at around a one-month high, maintaining some gains that had followed the central bank calling rate cut expectations premature last week. "An environment of stronger shares and weaker dollar helped the crown last week. At the start of this week, OPEC production cuts and higher prices of oil can surprise central Europe," CSOB said. On stock markets, central Europe's indices ticked higher, while bond yields were higher, continuing to correct upward after falls last month amid global banking turmoil.

CEE SNAPSHO AT

MARKETS T 1145

CET

CURRENC

IES

Latest Previou Daily Change s

bid close change in 2023 EURCZK Czech <EURCZK 23.4500 23.4500 +0.00% +3.02% = crown =>
EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF 379.000 379.850 +0.22% +5.39% = forint => 0 0
EURPLN Polish <EURPLN 4.6750 4.6780 +0.06% +0.31% = zloty =>
EURRON Romanian <EURRON 4.9426 4.9470 +0.09% -0.00% = leu =>
EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD 117.220 117.300 +0.07% +0.07% = dinar => 0 0

Note: calculated from 1800

daily CET

change

Latest Previou Daily Change s

close change in 2023 .PX Prague 1353.86 1352.46 +0.10% +12.66 00 % .BUX Budapest 42806.9 42318.3 +1.15% -2.25% 4 4
.WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 1791.69 1758.56 +1.88% -0.02% >
.BETI Buchares 12221.9 12111.5 +0.91% +4.79% t 5 0
.SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITO 1195.53 1201.12 -0.47% +13.99 P a P> % .BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX 889.79 891.29 -0.17% +7.90% 15 15>
.SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 610.77 610.79 -0.00% +1.54% >

Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic
CZ2YT= 2-year <CZ2YT= 5.7940 0.0280 +306bp -1bps RR RR> s
CZ5YT= 5-year <CZ5YT= 5.0100 0.0300 +265bp +0bps RR RR> s
CZ10YT <CZ10YT 4.6440 0.0370 +230bp +1bps =RR 10-year =RR> s

Poland
PL2YT= 2-year <PL2YT= 6.1000 0.0490 +336bp +1bps RR RR> s
PL5YT= 5-year <PL5YT= 6.0480 0.0650 +369bp +4bps RR RR> s
PL10YT <PL10YT 6.1370 0.0720 +380bp +4bps =RR 10-year =RR> s

FORWARD

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech <CZKFRA 7.18 6.87 6.27 7.18 Rep ><PRIBO

R=>

Hungary <HUFFRA 15.42 13.62 12.57 16.30 ><BUBOR

=>

Poland <PLNFRA 6.89 6.81 6.41 6.89 ><WIBOR

=>

Note: are for ask

FRA prices

quotes

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(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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