Canadian dollar hits two-month low as Middle East hopes weigh on oil

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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TORONTO, March 25 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened to a two-month low against its ‌U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as oil prices fell on hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict and investors weighed recent signs of domestic economic weakness.

The loonie was trading ​0.3% lower at 1.3809 per U.S. dollar, or 72.42 U.S. cents, ​marking its weakest intraday level since January 22.

"The loonie’s descent to ⁠a two-month low suggests that internal economic deceleration is now weighing more ​heavily on the currency than the support typically provided by favorable terms of ​trade in energy," said Kevin Ford, FX & macro strategist at Convera.

"Following a cautious tone from the Bank of Canada last week, investors have turned the focus back to a sluggish labor ​market and economic macro figures that have missed projections."

Canada's economy has been ​disrupted by hefty U.S. tariffs on critical sectors, such as autos, steel and aluminum. Exports were ‌down ⁠14.6% year-over-year in January and employment declined by 84,000 in February.

"Further pressure stems from geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties. While elevated energy prices are currently the primary pillar of support for the CAD, this makes the currency highly vulnerable to ​any de-escalation in ​Middle East tensions," ⁠Ford said.

Reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war helped push U.S. crude ​oil futures 2.8% lower to $89.77 a barrel. Oil is one ​of Canada's ⁠major exports.

Last Wednesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said it was too early to assess the effect of the war as the central bank left its benchmark ⁠interest ​rate on hold at 2.25%.

Canadian bond yields moved ​lower across the curve. The 10-year was down 8.6 basis points at 3.483%, extending its pullback from ​Monday's near two-year high at 3.643%.

Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Chris Reese

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