Canada's March employment posts modest increase, jobless rate unchanged

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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OTTAWA, April 10 (Reuters) - Canada's job growth remained ‌subdued in March while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% from the prior month, data showed on Friday, signaling continued slack, or underutilized workforce, in the labor market.

Employment in March rose by a net of 14,100 jobs against a slump of 83,900 in the prior ​month, Statistics Canada said.

This was the first time this year that the job market grew, even though the ​gains were modest and was nowhere near enough to offset a whopping 109,000 total job losses in ⁠the first two months of the year.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast job gains of 15,000 in March and ​had expected the unemployment rate to edge up to 6.8%.
Canada's economic momentum has weakened over the past year following a ​wave of U.S. tariffs on key sectors including steel, aluminum, autos, copper and lumber. While the economy has so far avoided a recession, the fallout has led to layoffs in trade-exposed industries and subdued hiring elsewhere.

The inflationary effects of the war in the Middle East and ​uncertainty around a review of a free trade deal with the U.S. also looms heavily on the economy.

The unemployment ​rate among the core-aged workforce, 25-54 years old, and among the youth remained unchanged in March from February, data showed.

While unemployment in ‌Canada continues ⁠to be elevated, economists predict this would gradually ease as population growth cools.

The job gains in March were entirely led by part-time jobs which increased by 15,200. Full-time jobs dropped by 1,100, the statistics agency said.

Lower full-time work, along with a high unemployment rate, are indicators of slack in the economy and is closely watched by the Bank of Canada ​for its monetary policy decision.

Another ​closely-tracked indicator is the average ⁠hourly increase in permanent wages. This metric showed wages rose by 5.1% in March on a year-on-year basis, its highest in the last 20 months.

The goods-producing sector, which is ​primarily the most exposed to U.S. tariffs, saw employment increase by 12,500 jobs while the ​services sector, where ⁠four out of every five people are employed in Canada, reported a modest 1,700 job gains.

This is the last labor force data before the BoC's monetary policy decision later this month. Money markets are pricing in no change in policy rate ⁠but betting ​on one 25-basis-point increase in the later part of the year.

The Canadian ​dollar pared losses and was trading down 0.05% to C$1.3821 against the U.S. dollar, or 72.35 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds were ​down 0.8 basis points after the jobs data to 2.514%.

Reporting by Promit Mukherjee; Editing by Dale Smith and Toby Chopra

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