Mapping the Market: Dollar's strength against the yen may depend on the 'Ichimoku cloud'

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
Mapping the Market: Dollar's strength against the yen may depend on the 'Ichimoku cloud' teaser image

April 30 (Reuters) - The tables may have turned on the dollar, which until earlier on Thursday had made big gains against the Japanese yen.
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Shortly after the ​dollar surged to 160.72 yen, its highest point of 2026, it suddenly ‌fell following a warning from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama that the timing for "decisive action" was nearing. His choice of words typically would be interpreted in the market as ​a signal from Tokyo that it is about to intervene in ​the currency market.

From now, the dollar's position versus the yen ⁠may depend on what technical analysts call the Ichimoku cloud, a tool ​that uses a set of averages to help discern a currency's trend. The ​Ichimoku cloud acts as support when price trades above it, and resistance when below.

During its drop, the dollar fell below the daily Ichimoku cloud, which spans 156.00-157.83, according to ​EBS data supplied by LSEG. That’s a key technical region to watch.

If ​the dollar can rise back above the bottom of the cloud at 156.00 yen ‌before Thursday's ⁠close, it may still be able to resume its climb against the yen. However, a close below that price would raise expectations of more losses for the dollar against the yen.

Complicating the picture further: Japanese markets will ​be closed on ​Monday through Wednesday ⁠for the holiday-studded Golden Week, which could cause wild swings in the yen due to thin liquidity, analysts say.

What the ​chart shows:

The dollar surged versus the yen to 160.72 on ​Thursday, ⁠its highest point of 2026, then fell sharply

The price has since dropped below the daily Ichimoku cloud, which spans 156.00-157.83

A sustained fall below 156.00 would raise ⁠expectations of ​further dollar losses against the yen

(Daily markets ​commentary from Reuters analysts on the signals financial charts are sending — and what they might mean.)

Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

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