Investors turn bullish on won, cut short bets on Asian FX on cheaper oil

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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Aug 6 (Reuters) - Investors turned bullish on the South Korean won for the first time in over ​10 months and pared down short bets on most other Asian currencies as cheaper oil alleviated concerns around import-driven ‌inflation, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Investors cut their bearish view on the Indian rupee , the Philippine peso and the Thai baht , turning slightly bullish on the Singapore dollar , a fortnightly survey of 10 respondents showed.

The South Korean won has appreciated 3% in the past few weeks, rising to an over 10-month high of ​1,414.5 a dollar on Thursday, supported by an intervention and repatriation of proceeds from SK Hynix's ADR launch in the U.S.

"The ​shift towards a bullish KRW view reflects a combination of strong corporate dollar supply, including exporter conversions and ⁠repatriation-related flows, as well as the authorities' demonstrated willingness to resist excessive currency weakness," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC.

Wong added that ​the won has also benefited from the recent appreciation in the yen, leading to a turnaround that appears more flow- and positioning-driven for now.

Long ​view on the Chinese yuan was the strongest in six weeks, with positioning on the Singapore dollar turning bullish for the first time in two months.

Crude prices dropped to their lowest in a month earlier this week, easing the pressure on energy-importing countries and their currencies.

Investors continued to scale back their bearish bets ​on the Indonesian rupiah from mid-June's historic peak. Short view on the Indian rupee was also at its weakest in a year.

Most of the ​poll responses came in before the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday to assess the impact of oil prices ‌on domestic ⁠inflation.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire optimism could support emerging market foreign exchange as energy-importing nations benefit from falling energy prices and a weaker dollar, said Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank.

Investors cut their bearish view on the Malaysian ringgit and the Taiwan dollar . Short bets on the Thai baht were at the lowest since late May, while those on the Philippine peso were the weakest since early March.

Inflation readings from Thailand ​and the Philippines this week showed that ​cost pressures eased in July, ⁠a trend that analysts expect to continue as the U.S.-Iran tensions ease.

The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market ​currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, ​Malaysian ringgit and ⁠the Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.

The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar ⁠versus each ​currency):

Reporting by Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee

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