Dollar recoups some losses as focus shifts to Fed remarks at Jackson Hole

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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Aug 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar showed signs of recovering some of last week's losses on ​Thursday as investors awaited signals on the Federal Reserve's policy path at the Jackson Hole symposium, following data that showed inflation remained ‌stickier than economists had anticipated.

Data in the previous session showed inflation rose more than expected in July, aiding expectations that interest rates could stay restrictive through the end of this year. Another report reiterated that the economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter.

The euro slipped 0.1% versus the dollar to $1.1639, while the British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3577 as investors pared bets for an interest ​rate hike by the Bank of England this year. The yen dipped nearly 0.1% to 159.45 per dollar as traders also digested a ​speech by the Bank of Japan's deputy governor.

The U.S. currency was near a one-week high versus its three counterparts. The ⁠dollar index , which measures the greenback's move against a basket of six currencies, was at 99.158, up about 0.3% this week, following last week's 0.8% drop.

"The ​big support for the dollar here is that the U.S. economy continues to outpace that of other major economies," said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy ​at Brown Brothers Harriman, adding that he expects U.S. rates to stay unchanged for the rest of the year, contrary to market pricing.

Traders are pricing in no change to borrowing costs in September but see a 74% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points by December as Middle East tensions keep oil prices elevated. However, ​analysts said that no rate hikes this year from the central bank could limit the dollar's gains.

"I don't expect the dollar to make new highs, ​because ... the risk of a more dovish Fed repricing and the lack of U.S. fiscal credibility are two big headwinds," Haddad said.

FISCAL CONCERNS AN OVERHANG

Currency and bond markets were still ‌recovering from ⁠the U.S. Treasury's attempt last week to limit a rise in long-term borrowing costs through increased long-term bond buybacks.

It revived dollar debasement chatter on soaring debt concerns and government intervention in markets, as reflected in bitcoin's 25% gain this month to $79,423.56.

The spotlight will now be on the Jackson Hole symposium starting later in the day, where Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks on Friday will be closely monitored for any hints on both the Treasury's latest shift, and monetary policy. Weekly jobless claims ​data on Thursday could also offer markets ​clues.

Ahead of the symposium, Kansas City ⁠Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said the current setting of central bank rates is not providing restraint to the economy, suggesting he still favours raising rates to get inflation back to 2%.

Traders were also monitoring central bank policy elsewhere.

Earlier on Thursday, BOJ ​Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said timely rate hikes would help avoid an inflation spike that could force abrupt tightening ​later, but stopped short ⁠of signalling an imminent rate hike.

"He did express concern about upside risks to prices ... that has likely led markets to conclude that the remarks were not especially dovish," said Sho Suzuki, a market analyst at Matsui Securities. "However, the absence of a clear signal means there is some chance the yen could come under renewed downward pressure."

The ⁠yen has cut ​some gains since the U.S.-Japanese intervention in currency markets last month.

The Canadian dollar held steady ​at C$1.3873 per dollar and is set for its biggest weekly drop since mid-June. U.S. President Donald

Trump said on Wednesday it was "time to teach Canada you can't do this anymore," just days after ​trade talks between the countries broke down.

Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama in Tokyo and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Jacqueline Wong and Conor Humphries

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