UBS forecasts two US Fed rate hikes in 2026 after strong jobs report

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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Sept 7 (Reuters) - UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 ​basis points each in September and December, ‌after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced views of a resilient labor market.

The brokerage had previously expected ​no policy change this year.

"However, hawkish ​communication, particularly (Fed Chair Kevin) Warsh's Jackson Hole ⁠speech, rising inflation risks from supply bottlenecks, and ​August labor data have come in strong enough ​to change that call," UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note on Friday.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in ​August, comfortably ahead of expectations, while the ​unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, data showed on ‌Friday.

Citigroup ⁠and Macquarie also revised their interest rate forecasts following the employment data.

The jobs report followed hawkish remarks from Warsh at the Jackson Hole ​symposium in ​August. Separately, ⁠Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates steady if upcoming ​data showed inflation pressures continued to ​ease.

Financial ⁠markets are pricing in a roughly 58% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at the Fed's ⁠September ​15-16 meeting, up from 52% ​on Thursday, CME's FedWatch tool showed.

Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty and ​Joel Jose in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala

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