Risky to be out of gold now

Kitco Media
By Jordan Roy-Byrne
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Updated:
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Gold is on the cusp of a major breakout from its super-bullish cup and handle pattern. The measured upside target is $3000/oz, and the log target is roughly $4000/oz.

These targets may sound extreme, but breakouts from multi-decade bases are rare but very bullish. Furthermore, a breakout from a long-term base to a new all-time high is also very bullish.

Think of how the stock market performed after 1982 or how gold stocks performed after breaking 25-year resistance in 1964. The breakout is not only very bullish in an immediate sense (think of a two to three-year time frame) but also is over the next decade.

These types of moves do not occur in a vacuum. They are accompanied by major market shifts and capital flows from one asset or market to another. 

The coming breakout and new secular bull market in Gold and precious metals will coincide with new secular bear markets in both the US stock market and the US Bond market. Capital is rotating out of financial assets, which will accelerate after Gold's breakout.

With that said, let me zoom in on the present.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the importance of Gold's monthly and quarterly close, $1950 resistance, and Gold's performance against the stock market and foreign currencies.

As you can see in the daily chart below, Gold is battling resistance at $1985, Gold against foreign currencies is battling its all-time high, and Gold against the stock market is battling its 2-year high. Any push higher above resistance could spark another leg to the upside and a new all-time high in Gold.  

On the other hand, the bears could make a last stand here and prevent Gold from breaking out. But that would be temporary.

In any case, with Gold so close to a historic breakout, the larger risk is being out of the market. You need to be invested before Gold blows through $2100 and carries Silver to $30 again and much higher.

If Gold cannot break $2100 in the next month or two, consider it an incredible last-chance opportunity to buy.

I continue to focus on finding high-quality gold and silver juniors with 500% upside potential over the next few years. To learn the stocks we own and intend to buy, with at least 5x upside potential in the coming bull market, consider learning about our premium service.

Kitco Media

Jordan Roy-Byrne

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association.. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor, as well as TheDailyGold Global, an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets.

Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan has been a speaker at PDAC, Cambridge House and Hard Assets conferences. TheDailyGold.com was recently named one of the top 50 Investment Blogs byDailyReckoning. Jordan earned a degree in General Studies from the University of Washington with a concentration in International Economic Development. He also lived and worked in Southeast Asia for 3 years in order to study economic development from an emerging market perspective. In his spare time he enjoys spending time with his wife, fitness, football and travel.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.