(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are lower and spot silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Monday, as traders weighed higher September Fed-hike odds and a renewed Strait of Hormuz oil shock against defensive demand tied to fresh U.S.-Iran escalation. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,438.20 an ounce, down 0.36%, while spot silver was trading at $66.860, up 0.91% on the session.
The latest positioning remains defined by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message and a data-heavy week ahead. Futures-implied odds of a September rate hike were near 60% Monday, after Warsh’s speech pushed the two-year Treasury yield nearly 12 basis points higher Friday. The two-year yield dipped to about 4.325% in early Monday trade, but the move only trimmed Friday’s surge rather than reversing it. The next rate tests are Tuesday’s JOLTS job openings and ISM manufacturing data, Wednesday’s ADP employment report, Thursday’s jobless claims and ISM services data, and Friday’s August payrolls report.
Gold remains caught between the rate shock and geopolitical bid. Friday’s selloff broke the metal below the 200-day moving average and put $4,396 back in focus in the latest technical setup, but Monday’s renewed Gulf risk has limited follow-through selling. Silver is trading better after bouncing from the $65.63 to $65.64 support area, but it remains below its short-term moving averages, leaving the rebound vulnerable unless buyers can clear the $67.75 to $68.40 resistance band.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near the strait Sunday, the first American military action in a month, breaking a lull in the more than six-month war. Oil surged more than 3% as traders repriced escalation risk, with Brent crude trading near $91 a barrel and U.S. crude near $86.40. For gold, the setup is conflicted: fresh military action supports safe-haven demand, but higher crude threatens to keep inflation elevated and strengthens the market’s case for another Fed hike.
Global markets were weaker ahead of the U.S. open. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.1%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX lost 0.8% and France’s CAC 40 edged lower, while U.K. markets were closed for a bank holiday. Asian markets were mixed as investors balanced higher oil, Fed risk and the week’s labor-market calendar.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $86.40 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $91.10. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area. The U.S. dollar index is mixed. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,487.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,515.00 and then $4,543.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,396.00, with deeper downside target at $4,341.00. First resistance is seen at $4,452.00 and then at $4,487.00. First support is seen at $4,396.00 and then at $4,341.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $67.75, with a move above that level targeting $68.40 and then $69.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $66.94, with deeper downside targets at $65.64 and then $65.60. First resistance is seen at $67.75 and then at $68.40. Next support is seen at $66.94 and then at $65.64.
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