Gold trading in a tight band near $4,100 and silver coiling around $57 doesn't feel like much on the surface, but in our experience, sideways action after a sharp correction can often be where opportunities set up. The weak longs have already been flushed out, and speculative positioning has reset and when a market refuses to break down after absorbing every piece of bad news, oftentimes that's not weakness, it's a spring compressing. We think both metals are setting up for their next leg and every Sunday in our Navigating the Week Ahead report, we map the key levels and setups before the trading week opens. If you want to be positioned for the turn instead of surprised by it, sign up here.
Gold and silver have been selling off for one main reason: the Fed's hawkishness. But what's really keeping the Fed hawkish isn't a red-hot economy, it's oil. Higher energy prices push up the inflation numbers, and a Fed chasing that reading ends up sounding tougher than the economy warrants. Inflation from a booming economy is a reason to raise rates; inflation from rising oil is just a cost squeeze on an economy that may already be slowing.
Daily Gold Chart
Here's why that matters for anyone watching gold and silver, and it's the part we want to press hardest. Go back to 2015. The Fed was moving to end its zero-rate era and raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade, and gold sold off hard into that decision as the market priced in tightening and feared more to come. Then something that catches most people off guard happened: gold bottomed right as the Fed actually pulled the trigger. The fear trade had exhausted itself. Once the hike was in hand and the guidance turned out to be measured, the metal turned higher and in hindsight that low marked the launch point for the bull market that followed.
We think September could be the 2026 version of that moment. Gold has already taken a roughly 30% haircut from its highs, silver collapsed from over $120 down to the $50s, and both are sitting on oversold technical conditions with sellers largely spent. To us, that looks like the profile of a market that may have already priced in much of the pain. If the Fed raises rates in September into what we'd characterize as a temporary supply-side inflation spike, we believe such a hike could help mark the low in both gold and silver.
Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
