CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:15 a.m. EDT 5 August 2026 $4,295.00 (Basis the October 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $4,050
Initial Timeframe: 5 August 2026 to 27 August 2026
Stop Loss: $4,400
CPM typically advises clients to time their investments ‘with patience,’ giving their positions some extra time to unfold. Sometimes it happens that an asset price will do what you thought it would do the day after your position expires. We have seen too often that markets do what we expected after positions have expired. One of the differences between how we invest and advise clients to invest and the methodology of our Trade Recommendations is that we give our clients and ourselves greater flexibility.
Today gold and silver did what we had projected they would do in our 23 July Trade Recommendations (Target price: $4,220), the day after those Recommendations expired on 4 August.
Gold rose as high as $4,241.50 this morning, along with other precious metals. It blew past our Stop Loss of $4,220 in our 4 August recommendation. We had set the Stop Loss levels close to market prices yesterday to minimize the risk of a spike higher in prices.
CPM is maintaining its view that gold prices may subside over the next three weeks, leading up to the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole economic conference 27 – 29 August.
That said, these are extremely unsettled times, with a tremendous flow of misinformation from governments, news outlets, and partisan observers. CPM has written that the political, economic, financial, and social risks and uncertainties in the world today are greater than at any time since December 1941. This is true, and will be reflected in volatile price moves for gold and silver, as well as stronger investment demand that will drive these metals prices higher.
It is CPM’s view that the volatility will rein supreme in August, with the move to higher levels coming after this month. The upward move can start at any moment however. CPM’s view is that it waits a few weeks before resuming.
We will repeat the last two lines of yesterday’s Gold Trade Recommendation here. Our view has not changed with the overnight upward move in prices.
Given this currency market unrest, CPM is tempted to issue a Stand Aside ultra short term recommendation for gold, given this statis, but feels the short-term downside opportunities may outweigh the potential upward pressures on gold prices over the next two weeks.
CPM continues to expect gold prices to rise beyond August.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
