My August 21 read separates what has already closed or printed from what is still in progress. Bitcoin crossed the 0.618 Fib, but liquidation-driven momentum is stretched; Ethereum and stablecoin dominance sit at opposite extremes; money flow is moving toward small caps ahead of schedule; TradFi and metals keep mixed states; and ALT setups still need asset-specific qualifiers.
Bitcoin closed above the 0.618 Fib at $72,204
Bitcoin daily chart on Binance above the 0.618 Fib
BTC closed above the 0.618 Fib at $72,204 on Thursday, crossing my “line in the sand” and closing the fair value gap left by June’s dump. The chart is already making another gap with a target down toward $63k. Thursday’s Volume exceeded Wednesday’s, which I treat as a continuation and momentum sign. At the same time, RSI closed at 91.63 and Fear & Greed reached 72, a record-high move from what I can tell for this bear market. I attribute the move to liquidation cascades and greed. I am not saying BTC cannot move higher, but I expect a nasty snapback to the Fast line once reality kicks in.
Ethereum is at historical TBO Resistance with RSI at 94.31
Ethereum daily chart on Binance at historical TBO Resistance
ETH closed up Thursday but backed off compared with BTC. RSI closed at 94.31, the inverse extreme of the 4.35 reading in June. ETH is also at historical TBO Resistance around $2,376 from March; the longer TBO Support/Resistance lines are, the stronger they are. I still think it is dangerous to short a massive move like this, yet I see ETH closing in on a brutal reversal. My comparison is the June dump: massively oversold, a slight bounce, then an eventual return to the Fast line.
Stablecoin dominance has a weekly TBO Close Long in progress
Combined stablecoin dominance weekly chart on CRYPTOCAP
Combined stablecoin dominance is massively oversold; daily RSI closed at 8.54 on Thursday, the lowest level seen in years, and I explicitly do not treat this pullback as the May pullback. On the weekly chart a TBO Close Long is in progress this week, not confirmed. That signal historically marked the end of the bear market in January 2023 and came with a large weekly RSI drop, which is happening again. The timing does not make sense to me, but I call it an important bearish reversal signal for crypto that worked very well in 2022. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
Crypto money flow is moving toward small-cap Phase 4 early
TOTALE50 daily market-cap chart on CRYPTOCAP
BTC.D shot to 60.23%, expressing a massive FOMO buy for BTC. ETH.D held up without pushing higher, SOL.D remained quiet and Top 10 Dominance had not closed above its Slow line. My flow sequence is BTC, then ETH, then large-cap Phase 3, which is happening now, then small caps below the Top 100 in Phase 4. I think Phase 4 is coming or starting soon, extremely ahead of schedule; this is not an altseason call. I am pivoting toward accumulating oversold ALTs while there is still time, with zero expectations about how long it lasts. OTHERS.D remains very bearish with a TBO Breakdown in progress and oversold RSI; TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D remain very bearish and behind. TOTALE50 printed a Close Short Wednesday and is starting to move toward the top of the Cloud. OTHERS is already above the daily Cloud and at the weekly Fast line, while OTHERS/BTC remains oversold and strong bearish. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
DXY, TradFi and metals keep separate states
U.S. Dollar Index daily chart on TVC in strong bearish mode
DXY is dropping in strong bearish mode, while the Euro is moving toward TBO Resistance around 1.18. The Yen moved back up into its Cloud and still has a long way to go before dropping below 155.025. S&P Futures moved inside the Cloud into bearish consolidation; because I still trust the falling DXY and bullish PMI numbers, I frame lower levels there as a buy-the-dip opportunity. FANG and NVDA remain strong bullish above their Clouds, TSLA remains in bullish consolidation and VIX moved to the Fast line without changing my concern. Gold and Silver closed above long-term overhead resistance, Platinum is moving toward the 0.382 Fib, Copper remains macro bullish and Uranium pulled back. PAXG/BTC is extremely oversold and overextended from the Fast line; I expect a bounce, while its weekly TBT Bearish Divergence is still in progress rather than confirmed.
ALT accumulation starts early, while UNI keeps a clear invalidation
UNI daily chart on Binance with classical short setup
My broad pivot is toward accumulating oversold ALTs ahead of schedule with a DCA strategy and preparedness to buy pullbacks, not indiscriminate chasing. I still think UNI is a good short setup and a great classical TA setup, but it will be invalidated if it closes above resistance. I have supplied no entry, stop, leverage or take-profit plan, so it remains a chart setup rather than a complete trade plan. Qualifiers stay with their owners: the super-risky warning belongs to SIREN-style collapses and DEXE’s recent dump; “don’t chase” belongs to PENGU; CRO is only a swing-trade idea, not a long-term hold; CAKE’s weekly TBO Close Short is in progress despite an unlikely continuation break; TRUMP still had not closed its new TBO Close Short; CHZ’s bullish RSI Reset is in progress and is only an early bottom signal; WAL is oversold without a bottom signal; and ATH only might be near its bottom.
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