My October 1, 2026 read keeps Bitcoin’s bullish context intact while separating confirmed dollar momentum from the still-unconfirmed historic DXY resistance break and other conditional pullback risks.
Bitcoin is chopping above the Cloud
Bitcoin / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
BTC remains above the daily TBO Cloud in a bullish context, even as price chops without a clear direction. I see a possible repeat of September 10 with a pullback to the Fast line, roughly 2% below the current price. That is a risk scenario, not a confirmed breakdown, and the bearish OBV cross does not erase the broader constructive context.
Stablecoin dominance stays bearish but can spike on a pullback
USDT.D+USDC.D · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
Combined stablecoin dominance remains strong bearish below the Cloud, with the Slow line pointing down in a strong macro bearish downtrend. If BTC has a bigger pullback, this chart will spike and create a buy-the-dip opportunity. Dominance is market share, not spot price, so a spike here would mean stablecoins gaining market share during a pullback, not a stablecoin price move.
Altcoin dominance still needs resistance closes
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, % · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
OTHERS.D finally closed green, but immediate TBO Resistance at 8.83% comes before long-term overhead resistance just above 9%. TOTALE100.D made the bigger move by reclaiming the Cloud. These dominance charts still need closes above TBO Resistance to confirm a strong bullish recovery and further bullish momentum.
Cloud reclamation is not full recovery confirmation
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 100 Dominance, % · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
TOTALE100.D reclaimed the Cloud, while TOTALE50.D only pushed a little higher. These dominance charts still need closes above TBO Resistance before I call the recovery confirmed. That is separate from the OTHERS, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 dollar market-cap charts, which remain strong bullish above their Clouds.
Dollar momentum is confirmed while the historic line remains untested
U.S. Dollar Index · 1D · TVC
DXY closed above TBO Resistance on Wednesday, confirming strong bullish momentum for the U.S. Dollar. It is separately approaching an untested long-term overhead-resistance line from 2025. A close above that second line has not happened; such a close would be historic and likely put more pressure on currencies and U.S. stocks. More broadly, if DXY continues higher, the pressure could ripple into global markets and crypto. A possible 20% pullback remains conditional, not a forecast certainty.
Equity downside levels remain conditional
S&P 500 · 1W · SPCFD
S&P futures printed another TBO Close Long while the Slow line remains very strong bullish, but higher DXY pressure keeps downside risk in view. If SPX suffers a surprise pullback, 6,151 is the weekly Slow-line worst-case target, not a daily target or base case. NDX still looks strong, and its TBT Bearish Divergence is in progress but unconfirmed.
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