Bitcoin remains inside its daily Cloud while confirmed Ethereum resets and selective altcoin recoveries improve the picture. I am separating completed signals from reversal expectations, developing warnings and chart setups.
Bitcoin remains inside the Cloud with an upward Slow line
BTC closed green but remains inside the daily TBO Cloud, with the Slow line angling upward. I still think we look good. On the 4-hour chart, a third Close Short is developing after two confirmed signals in the last 24 hours. The September Close Shorts preceded a rally, but that historical comparison does not confirm today's third signal or guarantee the same outcome.
Ethereum relative strength confirms its RSI reset
ETH/BTC confirmed a bullish RSI reset on Tuesday's close. ETH.D also already has a bullish RSI reset; SOL.D remains oversold and is still waiting for one. ETH itself still looks good, with its Slow line pointing upward and no immediate problems in my view. Combined stablecoin dominance remains in daily bullish consolidation inside the Cloud, but RSI has a lower high and a newly printed 4-hour Close Long. These are distinct ratio, dominance and spot observations.
Bitcoin dominance has a reversal expectation, not a completed reversal
BTC.D pushed above TBO Resistance, which I do not like, but did not make a higher local high. I think we will see a reversal today, meaning dominance should flow into altcoins to fuel the next rally. That is my expectation, not a completed reversal or guaranteed spot-price gain.
Outside-the-top-ten strength still needs a daily close
I am much more focused on OTHERS.D. It has no bullish reversal signs on the 4-hour chart; the daily Slow line points upward, and we need a close above daily TBO Resistance at 8.75%. TOTALE50.D did not close inside the Cloud Tuesday, while TOTALE100.D bounced back above it. They need to keep pushing higher, which could happen quickly with BTC.D starting a reversal. Separately, dollar-cap TOTALE50 is above its Cloud, but TOTALE100 is not yet. TOTALES closed Monday's Close Long on Tuesday's wick to Fast, yet the signal still worries me. OTHERS has not closed its Close Long yet; it is on track to do that today, then close above the Cloud. TOTAL3ESBTC is strong bearish and very oversold; at 0.306 versus OTHERS/BTC at 0.14, the relative bullishness differs greatly. I remain focused on coins outside the top ten. Dominance percentages and BTC ratios are not dollar-price targets.
The dollar RSI reset changes the macro outlook
DXY closed red with a bearish engulfing candle and did not close above the 0.5 Fibonacci level yet. Its 19-bar, 27-day overbought RSI streak ended with a bearish RSI reset. We should expect more chop and an eventual fall, which in turn should move EURUSD up and USDJPY down. That is an expected causal sequence, not a completed currency move. S&P futures remain relatively unfazed; SPX holds above TBO Resistance with bullish momentum. NDX kind of gave a Springboard Bounce on a Fast-line retrace, while NVDA is above the Cloud after hours after opening deeper inside it. Oil is moving up to overhead resistance; I hope it does not push above, and I do not like that outlook. Gold and silver remain strong bearish below the Cloud.
Altcoin recovery is selective rather than uniform
Many altcoins remain in bearish consolidation inside their Clouds. ZEC tagged Fast and closed Monday's Close Long; XMR closed above the Cloud. QNT retraced to Fast for a Springboard Bounce setup at 213.39, with Resistance at 255.45. JUP and ALGO also have Fast-line retrace setups. RENDER, FIL and AERO remain strong bullish above their Clouds, while M is below Support with strong bearish momentum. CAKE is working on a third Close Long, not a confirmed third signal. INJ closed above the Cloud but not above TBO Resistance or the 0.382 Fibonacci level yet. GRASS has a bearish divergence but remains very strong bullish. OP closed above TBO Resistance and printed a Breakout, with huge potential to rip higher in my view. SUPER has a Springboard setup at 0.2087 with Resistance at 0.2391; W is pulling back to Fast and ORCA is another setup. S confirmed its third and final Breakout; BEAM printed a third Breakout after a 10% pump. WAL is pumping 24% and working on a Breakout toward the 0.236 Fibonacci level, not a confirmed Breakout. Setups and destinations are not fills, returns or complete risk plans.
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