(Kitco Commentary) - The market is back in the danger zone, but I remain bullish. The useful distinction today is between bearish trend evidence, selective resilience and the conditions that would unlock a reversal—not a claim that the bottom is already in.
Bitcoin loses Support, but my bullish outlook survives the danger zone
Bitcoin / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
BTC closed below newly established TBO Support on Monday on a near-2% decline. A close below Support means the trend is strong and likely to continue lower, which is bad news for BTC to a degree. Saturday's weak bullish RSI reset followed Friday's oversold reading, but BTC could very well fall to the Cloud bottom, as in March 2023. I am still impressed with its resilience against the technology selloff. Things have shifted back into the danger zone, but I remain bullish.
Ethereum shows relative resilience without a confirmed reversal
Ethereum / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
ETH wicked above TBO Resistance on Monday and closed down less than 1%. A higher RSI low against a lower price low, plus another bullish RSI reset, gives bullish divergence. ETH/BTC is holding up surprisingly well: as long as it holds above its new TBO Support, we should be good. A TBO Close Short after moving up into the Cloud would be even better; that sequence is not a completed signal.
Altcoin dominance tests a conditional bump-and-run
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, % · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
OTHERS.D moved above resistance Friday and has retraced to the upper channel line. If it bounces off that line today, it would constitute a bump-and-run setup, and we should expect a move to Resistance at 8.75%. The bounce is still a condition. Dominance is market share, not spot price or a promised altcoin return. BTC.D printed a second TBT Bearish Divergence close to the first even as its Slow curls upward, a bearish reversal warning within macro bullish strength. Stablecoin dominance rose 1.56% Monday but did not exceed Friday's high; RSI made a lower high. I would be fine with one more dump to tag its weekly Fast line. TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D are strong bearish and falling despite bullish RSI resets. TOTALES returned to daily Support; TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 went oversold, while OTHERS did not. TOTAL3ESBTC is strong bearish again; OTHERS/BTC is back at its historical resistance/support line.
Dollar weakness contrasts with bearish equity signals
U.S. Dollar Index · 1D · TVC
DXY wicked lower into the Cloud and closed inside it Monday. Even if it bounces above the Cloud today, I still expect it to fall to the Cloud bottom, which should ignite a nice TradFi rally. The euro touched Fast for the first time in 35 bars, or 49 days: a wick is only the beginning. S&P futures closed below Cloud in strong bearish mode Monday for the first time since April 7; its RSI is not oversold yet. Separately, SPX confirmed an Open Short Monday. NDX closed oversold, FANG is oversold for the first time since March, and NVDA is oversold for only the third time this year while strong bearish below Cloud. These are not confirmed reversals. Hang Seng is working on a TBT Bullish Divergence today at Fast; KOSPI printed its second on Monday with a slightly ascending Slow line.
Oil support is the next condition for my stock-reversal outlook
Light Crude Oil Futures · 1D · NYMEX
Oil futures fell 6.5% on Monday and printed a TBT Bearish Divergence. Immediate support is 95.20 today. If oil drops or closes below that level, then we should be gearing up for a big stock-market reversal rally in my view. That condition is not already satisfied just because Monday was weak. Gold bounced 1.83%; silver printed another bullish RSI reset but remains strong bearish. Platinum retraced to previous resistance, now support, and could be setting up to bounce to the Cloud top at 1,769. Copper is chopping inside Cloud. Uranium fell 4.15%. PAXG/BTC rose 3% as BTC fell and gold rose, but remains macro bearish.
Selective ALT strength coexists with unfinished support tests
PEPEUSDT SPOT · 1D · Bitget
PEPE remains one of the stronger ALTs above its Cloud. XRP is holding Slow; HYPE fell to Fast and then below previous support. TAO reached new Support but is in danger of closing below it; SKY is back at short-term support. VVV confirmed an Open Short Monday. STX printed a predictive wick Saturday with a top target of 0.3990. PIEVERSE printed a TBT Bullish Divergence Monday with Slow barely pointing up, whereas CASHCAT is only working on one on today's candle. MON reached Support and printed Breakdown; JASMY still holds Support but needs a bounce. BAT printed its second Close Long over the weekend. AXS and FARTCOIN are at Support with oversold RSI. BEAM fell 18% Monday and printed a TBT Bearish Divergence; it will likely retrace to Fast before bouncing again. ORCA is oversold at Cloud bottom. Could memes bounce today? That remains a question, not a confirmed broad reversal.
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