(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher after the North American cash-market close Thursday, as a weaker-than-expected June payrolls report pushed the U.S. dollar lower, eased near-term Federal Reserve tightening fears and helped metals extend their post-data rebound. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,135.60 an ounce, while Comex gold settled at $4,112.70, up 1.09% on the session. Comex silver settled at $60.643, up 0.93%.
Gold’s rebound followed a payrolls miss that shifted the session from inflation-defense positioning toward growth-risk hedging. Silver outperformed on the week, ending a seven-week losing streak in futures and recovering further from late-June lows, while gold posted its strongest weekly gain since late May.
This morning’s nonfarm payrolls report moved the Fed-rate debate further out the curve. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, below the 115,000 consensus, while unemployment fell to 4.2% and April-May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. The dollar weakened after the release and rate traders pushed expectations for any additional tightening toward December rather than October. The 10-year Treasury yield was still near the 4.5% area late in the session, so the data did not deliver a clean rate-relief trade, but it reduced the urgency of near-term hike pricing and supported gold’s move back above $4,100.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as a lower-risk but unresolved chokepoint. Daily vessel traffic has stabilized between 30 and 60 crossings over the past week, averaging about 40 vessels a day, after recent cargo-ship and oil-tanker incidents disrupted the recovery in flows. Oil prices are back near prewar levels, with WTI near $68.69 and Brent near $71.80, as U.S.-Iran negotiations and increased Strait traffic reduced the immediate energy-risk premium.
The gold impact is now secondary: the market is pricing less panic demand from Hormuz, but continued uncertainty over transit authority, Iranian routing claims and U.S. freedom-of-navigation warnings keeps a residual geopolitical bid in the background.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $68.69 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $71.80. The U.S. dollar index is lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,382.62 and then $4,411.94. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,162.36 and then at $4,214.34. First support is seen at $3,959.00 and then at $3,942.10.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $60.05 to $63.32 area, with a move above that zone targeting $65.03 and then $69.85. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.83, with deeper downside targets at $58.00 and then $55.58. First resistance is seen at $60.05 and then at $63.32. Next support is seen at $58.83 and then at $58.00.
