(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are sharply higher on Friday morning with U.S. markets closed ahead of the Independence Day holiday, as Thursday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report continued to weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields while supporting short-covering in precious metals. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,175.50 an ounce, up 1.30%, while spot silver was trading near $62.220, up 2.28% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $4,120.50 to $4,196.10, keeping the metal within striking distance of the $4,200 level that chart-based accounts are using as the next upside test. Silver’s early range was $60.80 to $63.02, with the metal outperforming gold and moving into its first major post-payrolls resistance band.
The post-payrolls positioning shift remains constructive for metals but not one-way. Nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000 in June and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.2%, while leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs and private payrolls rose 49,000. The soft hiring print reduced near-term Fed-hike urgency, pushed the dollar lower and left the 10-year Treasury yield near the 4.5% area, but the market has not fully removed tightening risk. Rate traders still assign material odds to another hike later this year, leaving gold bid on weaker labor momentum while still sensitive to any rebound in inflation expectations.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as normalization with unresolved governance risk. Shipping flows through the strait are normalizing and oil prices have returned toward prewar levels, with Brent near $72.02 and WTI near $68.73, but U.S.-Iran negotiations remain fragile and disputes over Hormuz administration and transit fees are not resolved. The current market impact is disinflationary at the margin: lower oil reduces the immediate energy-shock risk for yields and the Fed, while gold’s main support is now coming from the dollar-and-rates channel rather than fresh panic demand tied to the waterway.
Traders are watching holiday-thinned North American trade after Thursday’s payrolls report, while looking ahead to the July 14 CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET and the July 29 FOMC decision. The next major test for gold is whether weaker labor-market momentum is enough to offset a Fed still focused on inflation and oil-risk pass-through.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices steady and trading around $68.73 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $72.02. The U.S. dollar index is lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,200.00 to $4,350.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500.00 and then $5,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,091.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,000.00 and then $3,950.00. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then at $4,350.00. First support is seen at $4,091.00 and then at $4,000.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $64.00 to $64.50 area, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $89.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.05, with deeper downside targets at $58.00 and then $55.00. First resistance is seen at $64.00 and then at $64.50. Next support is seen at $60.05 and then at $58.00.
