(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are modestly higher and spot silver prices are weaker ahead of the North American market open Tuesday, as traders faded part of last week’s payrolls-led rally while Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices moved higher. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,169.39 an ounce, up 0.10%, while spot silver was trading near $61.397, down 1.03% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $4,116.20 to $4,169.40, leaving the metal above the $4,100 area but below the $4,200 resistance zone that capped the latest rebound. Silver’s early range was $60.200 to $62.290, with the metal giving back part of last week’s outperformance after failing to sustain momentum above the $62.00 area.
Positioning after Thursday’s June employment report remains supportive for gold, but less one-sided than it was immediately after the release. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. The weaker hiring print reduced the urgency around a near-term Fed hike, but the 10-year Treasury yield was back at 4.499% at 8:23 a.m. ET and DXY was firmer near 100.91 at 8:20 a.m. ET. That leaves gold supported by softer labor momentum, while higher yields and the dollar are limiting fresh long additions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed minutes.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit with renewed attack risk, not a full chokepoint closure. Oil prices rose more than 1.5% in early European trade after attacks on commercial vessels near the strait, including a tanker hit by a projectile off Limah, Oman, early Tuesday. Brent traded near $72.62 and WTI near $69.05 in U.S. pre-market trade, but the oil response remains contained by recovering Gulf exports, ongoing OPEC+ supply increases and a well-supplied physical market. For gold, the immediate effect is a small geopolitical bid in the background, but the dominant trade remains the dollar-yield response to labor data and Fed expectations.
Traders are watching Wednesday’s Fed minutes, the July 14 CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET and any follow-through in Hormuz shipping incidents. A hawkish tone in the minutes would test the post-payrolls gold rebound; softer inflation data would give metals a cleaner path to extend gains.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $69.05 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $72.62. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,200.00 to $4,260.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,370.00 and then $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,091.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,000.00 and then $3,959.00. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then at $4,260.00. First support is seen at $4,091.00 and then at $4,000.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.33 to $62.81 area, with a move above that zone targeting $64.00 and then $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.69, with deeper downside targets at $59.00 and then $58.00. First resistance is seen at $61.33 and then at $62.81. Next support is seen at $60.69 and then at $59.00.
