(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday, as crude oil prices pulled back, Treasury yields eased and the U.S. dollar weakened after Wednesday’s Fed-minutes and Hormuz-driven selloff. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,120.80 an ounce, up 1.13%, while spot silver was trading near $59.95, up 2.82% on the session.
Gold’s session range was $4,053.60 to $4,134.90, leaving the metal back above the $4,100 area but still below the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone that capped the latest rebound. Silver’s session range was $57.47 to $60.62, with the metal recovering the $60.00 area after Wednesday’s break but still below the $61.00 to $62.00 resistance band.
Positioning after last Thursday’s June employment report and Wednesday’s Fed minutes remains two-sided. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000, initially supporting gold by reducing confidence in another near-term Fed hike. The Fed minutes then showed several officials were still concerned enough about inflation to keep a September hike in play, but Thursday’s jobless claims data pointed to a labor market cooling through slower hiring rather than rising layoffs.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.53% after reaching a seven-week high near 4.60% Wednesday, while the 2-year yield slipped toward 4.16% and DXY fell back below 101.00. That gave metals room to rebound, although the rate path remains capped by next week’s CPI report.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under elevated military and shipping risk, not a confirmed chokepoint closure. U.S. strikes on Iranian targets have continued, and Iran has retaliated against regional targets, but there has been no naval blockade and reports of Iranian tankers moving crude through the strait helped cool the oil-risk premium. Brent crude fell back below $76 a barrel and WTI traded near $71 as traders priced a lower probability of an immediate supply disruption.
For gold, the shift was supportive because lower oil reduced the inflation impulse that had lifted yields and the dollar Wednesday. For broader markets, the trade moved from oil bid and bonds under pressure to oil offered, yields lower, dollar softer and precious metals firmer.
Traders are watching next week’s CPI release, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and any renewed disruption to Hormuz shipping lanes. A cooler CPI print would reduce September hike risk and give gold a cleaner path to test the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone, while a fresh oil spike would bring the inflation-rate channel back into focus.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $75.50. The U.S. dollar index is lower and trading near 100.80. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.53% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average at $4,362.63. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,041.65, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,162.36 and then at $4,214.34. First support is seen at $4,072.40 and then at $4,041.65.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.44 and then $63.28, with a move above that level targeting the 200-day moving average at $70.06 and then the 50-day moving average at $70.53. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.53, with deeper downside targets at $55.60 and then $50.00. First resistance is seen at $59.44 and then at $63.28. Next support is seen at $58.53 and then at $55.60.
