(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices were firmer in late-afternoon U.S. trading Monday as lower oil prices eased the inflation impulse from the U.S.-Iran conflict, while positioning remained cautious ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,075.60 an ounce, up 0.59%, while spot silver was trading at $58.290, up 0.45% on the session.
US interest rates remain the main macro risk for gold, with the FOMC decision due Wednesday. With markets pricing a meaningful, but not dominant, probability of a 25-basis-point hike, gold’s bid is being capped by the risk that the Fed keeps policy restrictive and pushes back against any easing expectations. With no clear path on monetary policy, the metal is caught between energy-led inflation risk and event-risk uncertainty.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central macro risk premium for energy and, by extension, gold. The waterway carried roughly 15 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil before the Iran war, and recent traffic disruptions have forced Gulf producers to lean harder on pipeline alternatives that were not built to fully replace Hormuz. Monday’s pause in U.S. and Iranian attacks took immediate pressure out of crude, with Brent settling at $85.87 a barrel, down 6.3%, and U.S. crude settling at $82.61 a barrel, down 7.5%. That relieved some oil-led inflation pressure and helped Treasury yields ease, but the shipping channel is not normalized, leaving gold supported by headline risk while higher real-rate risk limits follow-through buying.
U.S. equities finished mixed as the de-escalation trade favored fuel-sensitive sectors and pressured parts of technology. The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.2%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note traded near the 4.6% area, down from late Friday, while the U.S. dollar index was softer to little changed across Monday’s session.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $82.61 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $85.87. The U.S. dollar index is softer to little changed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average at $4,221.46 and then $4,382.62. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.80, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,166.13 and then at $4,202.71. First support is seen at $4,072.40 and then at $4,041.65.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $63.28, with a move above that level targeting the $70.65 to $72.08 resistance zone. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break back below the 20-day moving average near $58.82, with deeper downside targets at $54.78 and then $45.00. First resistance is seen at $60.10 and then at $60.94. Next support is seen at $58.82 and then at $54.78.
