(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, after July PCE inflation came in slightly hotter than expected and pushed Treasury yields higher ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole remarks. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,633.50 an ounce, down 0.52%, while spot silver was trading at $68.720, up 0.26% on the session.
The latest positioning shifted back toward a more cautious Fed path after this morning’s data stack. July PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, above expectations for a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.6% annual rate, while core PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.3% year-over-year. Q2 GDP had been tracking at a 1.5% annualized pace in the advance estimate, and July durable-goods orders were expected to rise 0.5% after a 0.3% June gain, with ex-transportation orders expected up 0.6%. The inflation print mattered most for rates: stock futures softened, Treasury yields edged higher across the curve and gold lost part of its fiscal-risk bid as traders reassessed how much room the Fed has to stay on hold. The next major policy signal is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday at 10 a.m. ET.
Gold and silver are still trading inside the broader breakout structure, but the morning’s inflation data have slowed momentum. Gold remains above the $4,567 support area identified in the latest technical setup, but it has slipped back below the $4,661 resistance level after failing to extend the prior move. Silver continues to hold above the $68.39 support area, but the metal has not reclaimed the $69.90 breakout level after testing above $70 last week. The short-term message is mixed: fiscal concerns and a softer medium-term dollar trend remain supportive, but hotter PCE and higher yields have raised the hurdle for another immediate upside extension.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. Iran is negotiating a maritime arrangement with Oman that would route commercial shipping through Iranian and Omani waters while barring military vessels from the strait, and the U.S. opposes the proposal. The waterway remains largely shut nearly 6 months after the Iran war began, keeping a geopolitical premium in energy even as crude prices have eased from last week’s highs. Brent crude is trading near the $90 area and WTI is near $84. For gold, the setup remains supportive but conflicted: restricted Gulf shipping underpins safe-haven demand, while any oil-led inflation impulse reinforces the case for higher-for-longer rates.
Global markets were mixed ahead of the U.S. open. U.S. stock-index futures softened after the PCE release, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures slipping while Dow futures were near flat. Asian trading was mixed, and European markets were steady to softer as traders waited for Nvidia earnings after the U.S. close and the Jackson Hole policy signal later in the week.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around the $84 area, while Brent crude was near the $90 area. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area. The U.S. dollar index is mixed to firmer after the PCE release. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,661.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,729.00 and then $4,794.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,567.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,508.00 and then $4,448.00. First resistance is seen at $4,661.00 and then at $4,729.00. First support is seen at $4,567.00 and then at $4,508.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $69.90, with a move above that level targeting $71.03 and then $72.39. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $68.39, with deeper downside targets at $66.54 and then $64.19. First resistance is seen at $69.90 and then at $71.03. Next support is seen at $68.39 and then at $66.54.
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