(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are little changed to weaker in early U.S. trading Thursday, as a firmer rates backdrop offset bargain hunting after Wednesday’s post-PCE pullback. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,588.50 an ounce, down 0.10%, while spot silver was trading at $67.950, down 0.06% on the session.
Gold moved off the lower end of its overnight range after weekly jobless claims fell to 203,000 for the week ended Aug. 22, below the 208,000 consensus estimate and down from a revised 207,000 the prior week. Continuing claims fell to 1.778 million for the week ended Aug. 15, against expectations for 1.790 million, keeping the labor-market signal too firm to give bullion a clean rate-relief trade.
The latest market positioning is still being shaped by Wednesday’s data stack. July PCE inflation rose 0.2% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE rose 0.2% and 3.3% year-over-year. Q2 GDP was unrevised at a 1.5% annualized pace. The combined message left September pricing tilted toward a Fed hold, but kept a year-end hike live: futures implied a 36.5% probability of a 25-basis-point September hike and a 72.7% probability of at least one hike by December. That has kept the 10-year Treasury yield near the 4.7% area and the dollar steady to firmer, limiting gold’s response to softer risk sentiment.
Traders are watching the EIA natural gas inventory report at 10:30 a.m. ET, Chicago PMI Friday at 9:45 a.m. ET, final University of Michigan consumer sentiment Friday at 10 a.m. ET and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks Friday at 10 a.m. ET. Warsh’s speech is the main policy risk because markets are looking for a clearer inflation reaction function after the July PCE print kept the Fed’s 2% target problem in focus.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive flows. Qatar’s prime minister is heading to Iran to restart talks, while Iran and Oman are working on a framework to manage the strait after nearly six months of conflict left the route effectively closed to normal Gulf energy exports. Shipping activity has improved only marginally, and the market is treating reopening talk as a partial relief valve, not a settlement. For gold, that keeps the signal mixed: lower oil risk premium reduces one safe-haven impulse, but any renewed disruption would feed inflation and rate-risk concerns back into bullion.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $82.41 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $88.35. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.The U.S. dollar index is steady to firmer near 99.2. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,607.79 to $4,652.45 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,699.60 and then $4,744.26. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,560.63, with deeper downside targets at $4,511.00 and then $4,468.82. First resistance is seen at $4,607.79 and then at $4,652.45. First support is seen at $4,560.63 and then at $4,511.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $69.981 to $71.213 area, with a move above that zone targeting $73.713 and then $74.346. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $67.481, with deeper downside targets at $66.213 and then $63.713. First resistance is seen at $69.981 and then at $71.213. Next support is seen at $67.481 and then at $66.213.
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