(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were firmer and spot silver prices were higher in late U.S. trading Friday, as oil prices fell on renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy hopes while rising Treasury yields and firm Fed rate-hike expectations capped bullion’s rebound. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,289.70 an ounce, up 0.38% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $64.170, up 0.69%.
North American equities finished higher as lower oil prices helped ease part of the pressure from the week’s yield shock. The S&P 500 rose 39.28 points, or 0.5%, to 7,743.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 478.64 points, or 0.9%, to 51,828.62. The Nasdaq Composite added 129.34 points, or 0.5%, to 27,068.72, while the Russell 2000 edged up 1.98 points, or 0.1%, to 2,837.55.
European equities also recovered as crude retreated. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.35% to 638.65, Germany’s DAX gained 0.56% to 25,408.64, Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.63% to 51,866.93 and the U.K. FTSE 100 added 0.14% to 10,695.25. France’s CAC 40 was the main laggard, slipping 0.04% to 8,077.80.
Market positioning remains anchored in the same conflict between resilient U.S. growth and sticky inflation expectations. August durable-goods orders were unchanged after a 0.9% July gain, while non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft jumped 1.6%, well above expectations and consistent with continued AI-linked capital spending. Final September consumer sentiment slipped to 48.1 from 51.7 in August, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% and five-year expectations edged up to 3.4%. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 68.6% chance of another rate increase next month, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to the 5.2% area and reached its highest level since 2007.
Next week’s August personal income and outlays report, including PCE inflation, is due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the September employment report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Stronger inflation or payroll data would keep the rates channel pointed against gold; softer data would test whether the week’s selloff has already priced enough Fed tightening risk.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation is still an oil-market risk, but the latest trade shows the market marking down the immediate blockade premium. U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of the war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade on Iran. Iran is still refusing flexibility on its nuclear program, and Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia remain a supply risk. Brent crude settled at $104.32 a barrel, down 2.1%, while WTI settled at $92.41, down 2.3%. Lower crude is gold-positive at the margin because it eases the inflation impulse behind yields and the dollar, but the unresolved shipping and supply risk keeps a defensive bid under bullion and leaves energy inflation inside the Fed reaction function.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $92.41 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $104.32. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.2% area. The U.S. dollar index is lower on the session but still set for a second straight weekly gain. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,297.60 to $4,304.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,345.00 and then $4,396.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,270.94, with deeper downside targets at $4,245.00 and then the $4,181.00 to $4,216.00 range. First resistance is seen at $4,297.60 and then at $4,304.00. First support is seen at $4,270.94 and then at $4,245.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $64.3965 to $64.920 area, with a move above that zone targeting $65.830 and then the psychologically important $68.000 area. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $63.7355, with deeper downside targets at $62.9400 and then the $62.350 to $61.460 zone. First resistance is seen at $64.3965 and then at $64.920. Next support is seen at $63.7355 and then at $62.9400.
See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.
